Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin divide Ukraine! In Taiwan, they ask: Are we next?

The Taiwanese draw parallels between the situation in Ukraine and the threat that China poses to their island. Like the Ukrainians, they are forced to live under constant pressure from a neighboring country that considers their territory its own. In addition, Taiwan, like Ukraine, relies largely on Western support to deter aggression, writes The Telegraph.

With their hands taped behind their backs, with black hoods on their heads, the demonstrators lay on the street in front of the Russian embassy in Taipei.

Taiwanese and Ukrainians stood shoulder to shoulder to mark the third anniversary of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. The solidarity was an expression of concerns that Putin’s invasion would embolden Xi Jinping, China’s president, to persecute Taiwan.

"We also face the threat of communist invasion," said Chen Po-yuan, a Taiwanese influencer who participated in the demonstration last month, on his YouTube channel.

The Taiwanese see a stark parallel between what is happening in Ukraine and the Sword of Damocles hanging over their heads from China. Like the Ukrainians, they live under constant threat from a neighbor who believes he has a right to their territory. They also rely on Western support to keep that threat at bay.

However, just days after the protest, Donald Trump publicly violated American foreign policy by engaging in a live televised shootout with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. Then he effectively shut down Kiev’s missile defenses, cutting off intelligence sharing between the United States and China.

In Taiwan, the sense of anxiety turned to panic. “This was a huge moment for Taiwan,” said David Sachs, who studies Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

Trump has cut off security guarantees for Ukraine, cut off military aid, and demanded that Zelensky give up rights to Ukrainian minerals and accept a ceasefire at all costs. Above all, he has made it clear that none of America’s traditional allies can count on its support.

The consequences for Taiwan are serious. The island is endlessly surrounded by Chinese warships and fighter jets, relying heavily on U.S. support as a deterrent to Xi’s aggression.

While Biden has promised to deploy U.S. troops on the ground if China invades Taiwan, Trump has refused to commit to defending the island, has said Taiwan has “stolen” the U.S. chip industry and has threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on semiconductors, the backbone of Taiwan’s economy.

“Trump is an isolationist, which means he could abandon Taiwan,” said Cheng-Wei Lai, a semiconductor engineer based in Hsinchu, a city south of Taipei.

Businesses and politicians on the island are trying to appease the U.S. president. President Lai Ching-te has pledged to increase defence spending from 2.5% to 3% of Taiwan’s GDP and there is talk of a plan to massively increase imports of US energy.

Last week, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) pledged to invest $100bn (£77bn) in building its manufacturing facilities in the US – one of the largest foreign investments in American history.

The investment was welcomed by the president, but warm words are no guarantee of security. In fact, the investment could undermine military relations.

Taiwan is the melting pot of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, and as a result, a full-scale war on the island would threaten global economic collapse. This threat of mutually assured destruction provides what analysts have called a “silicon shield” - it is in the US interest to protect the island.

If Trump acquires the capacity to manufacture these chips in the US, he may lose any interest in defending Taiwan - if he has any to begin with.

The Taiwanese also worry that the US president may treat the island as a mere bargaining chip while he prepares a deal with Xi. The 10% tariffs he imposed on China have angered Beijing, but observers believe Trump is laying the groundwork for talks with the world's second-largest economy.

In Trump's world of transactions, everything comes at a price. In Taiwan, there is a slogan: “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow“.

A former Japanese colony, Taiwan lies about 100 miles off China's southeast coast and was part of the country until Mao Zedong's communist revolution in 1949. The Nationalist Kuomintang government, which ruled from Beijing, fled to Taiwan, made Taipei its temporary capital, and declared martial law.

Today, the island, which is officially called the Republic of China as opposed to the People's Republic of China across the strait, is home to 23 million people. Martial law was lifted in Taiwan in 1987, and Taiwan held its first democratic elections in 1996.

Beijing has maintained that Taiwan has been a province of China since its split in 1949, and Xi sees the rift as a historical wrong that he must right. He calls reunification "the essence" of "rejuvenation" of China and has vowed to reclaim Taiwan by 2049, a century after its independence.

According to US officials, Xi has instructed his military to be ready to invade by 2027.

America’s historical support for the island stems from Cold War fears of the spread of communism in Asia. Although the US has no formal treaty obligation to defend Taiwan, it considers it a key partner and supplies it with weapons.

Since 1950, the US has sold Taiwan about $50 billion in arms and defense equipment, according to the CFR. In February, US warships passed through the Taiwan Strait.

“During the Biden administration, the discussions were based on values, about alliances, partnerships or even democracy,“ said Jason Chen, a former Taiwanese lawmaker and now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. “Trump is having none of that. We need to be very clear about what we can offer and what we want to get in return.

Trump’s radical reworking of the Ukraine situation offers worrying signs of what to expect for Taiwan.

“What worries people is this rhetoric of victim blaming,” said Brian Hioe, editor of New Bloom magazine, which covers activism and youth politics in Taiwan.

“The idea of making deals but also putting pressure on Ukraine, not Russia, in the same way he could have done with Taiwan and China.

“[Trump] needs the vision of submission, that’s what the exchange with Zelensky shows us. He needs to think that Taiwan is the complete loser in this deal, and the US is the only winner.”

Chen adds: “Trump can’t agree with that: ‘You just have to understand at a fundamental level that Trump is a deal-maker. He’s looking to make deals.’”

What does the island have to offer? The US president wants to reduce reliance on Taiwanese chips, see more investment from the island and more US exports.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has been particularly irritated by trade deficits, and Taiwan sells far more to the US than it buys. Taiwan’s trade surplus with America – the amount by which it sells more than it buys – has grown from $11 billion in 2018 to $65 billion. dollars last year, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics.

That not only risks drawing Trump’s ire, it also exposes Taiwan to tariffs. In February, Economy Minister Kuo Jihui said the government was working on countermeasures to protect Taiwan’s interests from Trump’s trade war.

The official told the Central News Agency that Taiwan was preparing to buy more American energy. State-owned energy company CPC is in talks to strike a deal with an Alaskan gas producer.

The announcement of the TSMC investment was timed to give Trump a big win to show off during his first address to Congress.

“They are smart in trying to prevent what happened with Ukraine or other U.S. allies,” Sachs said. "I think we will see a large arms purchase from Taiwan going forward, as well as potentially a large energy purchase to reduce the surplus it has with the United States.

"Taiwan is very deliberate and proactive. It has a broader political strategy.“

If Trump’s concerns are primarily economic, Taiwan could argue that it is in the US interest to defend the island. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would trigger a global meltdown.

According to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics, a full-scale war would wipe out 10.2% of global GDP in the first year through a combined loss of semiconductor production, a hit to global trade and a financial shock.

The analysis shows that a war in Taiwan would be twice as expensive as the pandemic and the global financial crisis.