These days are more than crucial for Ukraine – it is about its hope of not losing the war and reaching an agreement that will guarantee its survival as an independent and sovereign state.
Ukraine's position
However, the attacked country is further than ever from fulfilling its demands based on international law. The prospects for restoring territorial integrity, i.e. regaining sovereignty of Crimea, occupied and annexed by Russia, as well as the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, are very limited. Immediately after coming to power, the new American administration stated that Ukraine would most likely have to give up lands – Russia already treats the relevant areas as Russian territory, writes ARD.
But if Ukraine is willing to give up parts of its territory in the east and southeast, at least temporarily, the question arises as to which areas it will give up, as well as - how the demarcation line and the ceasefire in general will be guaranteed. Recently, the Ukrainian leadership has not raised a demand for the restoration of the entire state territory. In addition, it has constantly emphasized that it seeks NATO membership in order to guarantee peace and deter Russia from another attack. And the Trump administration has also rejected this prospect.
Ukraine's desire is for a possible future ceasefire to be guaranteed by foreign soldiers, preferably with security guarantees. However, the United States has not demonstrated a willingness to provide them, and the Europeans, in turn, want the guarantees to be provided by the United States, ARD recalls. The German public-law media outlet explains that the 900-km-long front line would have to be secured by a large number of foreign soldiers. And if we take into account the total length of the border between the two countries – 2,300 km – experts estimate that at least 150,000 soldiers from Western countries would be needed.
Russia's position
Russia has not yet given up on any of its goals with which the war began. The country has generally expressed its readiness to participate in negotiations to end hostilities, but its plans for Ukraine have not changed since the attack on February 24, 2022.
Russia rejects Ukraine's membership in NATO, insists on the country's neutrality and a reduction in its army. The opinion of Western experts on this issue is that this is reminiscent of demilitarization and that Ukraine would thus be defenseless - if there are no Western guarantees - in the event of a new Russian attack.
Russia rejects the proposal to deploy Western soldiers on the territory of Ukraine to guarantee the ceasefire. At the same time, it does not hide that it seeks a change in the top leadership of Ukraine so that Zelensky can be replaced by a president favorable to Moscow. Moscow does not tire of repeating that Zelensky is no longer a legitimate president, since his term has expired. This position has since been adopted by US President Donald Trump, and the fact that Ukrainian law does not provide for holding elections during wartime is ignored, ARD notes.
Russia categorically refuses to discuss the annexation of Crimea and the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson - their affiliation with the Russian Federation is already enshrined in the constitution, although Russia controls only part of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
Last Friday, the Kremlin presented a draft ceasefire agreement - in line with discussions in Istanbul in March 2022, shortly after the war began. From the point of view of the United States and Russia, this draft could be the basis for a peace agreement, the presidency in Moscow said.
The US position
President Trump has left no doubt that he will no longer support Ukraine financially and militarily as he has done so far. His reasons - on the one hand, the amount of aid provided so far, on the other - the death and suffering of so many people in the war.
In the context of the assistance provided by the United States, Trump accuses Ukraine of ingratitude and insists on an agreement that would theoretically provide the United States with access to the country's valuable raw materials. However, a significant part of them is located in areas currently controlled by Russia, ARD notes. Zelensky is ready to sign such an agreement, but had requested security guarantees from the United States in return.
Even before the talks with Russian representatives, the US side emphasized in February that it considers Ukraine's accession to NATO unrealistic and believes that Ukraine will have to give up part of its territory. As for the demands that Washington is making of Russia - there is no clarity other than the expectation that the two sides will agree on a ceasefire.
The US has stopped military aid to Ukraine and is no longer providing the country with intelligence information. According to Ukrainian data, this immediately weakened the defense capabilities of the army and civil defense. However, the US recently announced that in the meantime Ukraine was once again receiving intelligence information for defensive purposes.
The Americans have no intention of providing support with soldiers to ensure security in the event of a ceasefire - they see this primarily as a task for the Europeans. And it is not known whether Trump also wants Zelensky to resign - while calling him a “dictator without elections“.
The Europeans' position
The Europeans have not yet participated in the US-Russian and US-Ukrainian ceasefire negotiations, but they are nevertheless part of the various scenarios. Due to the turn in US policy towards Ukraine, they are now trying to develop their own plan to end the fighting. It is about forming a “coalition of the willing“ that would continue to support Ukraine. According to British data, it now includes 20 countries, writes ARD and explains that it is about guaranteeing peace with their own soldiers, and possibly with the participation of countries from Asia and Oceania.
The plan is to be discussed over the weekend at a virtual conference at the invitation of the British government, and representatives of 30 countries will participate in the next talks in Paris, said a French military representative. France and Britain are leading the effort in Europe and have already announced their readiness to provide their own soldiers. The two countries intend to prepare a plan for a month-long ceasefire in Ukraine, but there is no agreement on the matter yet. In addition, almost all EU countries have stated that they will continue to provide military support to Ukraine. A declaration was also adopted to this effect, which was not signed by Hungary alone.
Author: Eckart Aretz ARD