In recent days, the Russian army has taken control of a number of settlements in the Kursk region, which since August 2024 had been under the control of the Ukrainian armed forces. On March 12, the Russian state news agency TASS and military correspondents published video footage showing Russian military personnel in the center of Sudzha. Ruslan Leviev, founder of the investigative project Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), said on March 12 that Ukrainian military personnel are systematically leaving the Kursk region. However, there have been no comments from the Ukrainian side so far.
On Wednesday, Vladimir Putin made his first visit to the Kursk region since Ukrainian units entered the region. Putin ordered Russian troops to drive out the remaining Ukrainian fighters from the area.
In its summary for Tuesday, March 11, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported heavy fighting, but did not provide detailed information about the situation in Kursk. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army, Oleksandr Syrsky, last commented on the situation on March 10, noting that there was no danger of encirclement of Ukrainian units in the Kursk region. "The units are carrying out timely maneuvering measures to promising defense lines," Syrsky noted on Facebook.
Is the Ukrainian Kursk operation coming to an end?
The well-known military observer, Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian army, believes that the Ukrainian Kursk operation is coming to an end. He also spoke about the gradual retreat of Ukrainian units on the territory of Ukraine:
"According to the available information, Ukrainian soldiers are retreating in small convoys - a clear signal of a general order to retreat. Where vehicles cannot pass, soldiers continue on foot, trying to reach the border in small groups - under constant surveillance by Russian drones. Now the question is to get out of there as unhindered as possible", Reisner points out.
According to him, Ukrainian units are retreating not only along the main roads, which are being shelled, but also along secondary ones, and in part they have to overcome water obstacles with the help of pontoons. "The Russians are trying to destroy the last bridges or auxiliary crossings created by the Ukrainian engineering troops in order to cut off the escape routes for the Ukrainians", the Austrian colonel notes.
"There is no danger of complete encirclement"
Yuri Butusov, a well-known Ukrainian military correspondent who is currently near the fighting zone in the Sumy region, confirmed in an interview with DW on March 11 that it has become very dangerous to travel along the roads that have previously delivered supplies and ammunition from Ukraine to Sudzha. At the same time, he believes that there is no danger of complete encirclement of the Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. "There is a threat only at certain positions. I hope that those who are on them understand the threat and will be able to withdraw in time," Butusov noted.
The correspondent considers it inexpedient for the Ukrainian units to remain in the Kursk region for a longer time. "The enemy has a significant numerical superiority and a convenient tactical position. I don't think it makes sense to stay there for a few more days," the military correspondent added.
"On Ukrainian territory, the defensive positions will be better"
The director of the Defense Express consulting company Serhiy Zgurets also believes that a withdrawal to the territory of Ukraine would be the safest scenario in the current situation, given the logistical problems and the significant numerical advantage of the Russians. According to him, Russia has concentrated a group of 60,000 people on this section of the front. "The logistical component is the Achilles heel. If we move to our own territory, the capabilities of our defense brigades will be better", the expert says.
According to Zgurets, there is no longer any political expediency for the Ukrainian side to hold positions in the Kursk region, which was expressed in a potential exchange of territories between Ukraine and Russia. "Trump ignores this component and now military goals come to the fore. And they have already been largely achieved: to minimize the risks for the Sumy region, to withdraw a certain number of Russian forces from other directions and to inflict maximum damage on them," Zgurets explains.
At the same time, Western analysts are divided on the results of the Kursk operation of the Ukrainian army. Former adviser to the German Defense Minister Nico Lange in an interview with the German TV channel ZDF, like Serhiy Zgurets, assesses the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region as successful. He does not exclude the possibility that the Ukrainian military will maintain defense there for some time. "Ukraine has occupied a number of points in the Kursk region that are advantageous for defense, and is holding them despite the Russian offensive. The Russians are still far from completely pushing the Ukrainians out of the Kursk region. For the Ukrainians, it is obvious: while the fight against these huge forces from the Russian side is being waged on Russian territory, these forces are not available to the Russian units in Ukraine. From this point of view, every day is a victory," says Nico Lange.
According to him, the Kursk operation has shown the weakness of the Russian authorities, who have not managed to push Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory in a short time, as the Kremlin demanded.
"A senseless waste of resources"
However, there are critics of this operation in the Western expert community who call it a waste of resources. Among them is Marina Miron from the King's College London think tank. "Russia did not transfer forces from other parts of the front to the Kursk region, as the Ukrainians had hoped. For a long time, the Russians held the Ukrainian forces at the occupied borders, instead of pushing them out," the British expert notes. In her opinion, the retention of Russian territories lost its meaning for Ukraine at the very moment when it became clear that it would not be possible to seize a single strategic object, such as the Kursk nuclear power plant. "From the point of view of military strategy, this was a disastrous choice. Ukraine extended the line of confrontation, initially not having sufficient material and human resources", Miron also criticized.
According to Colonel Markus Reisner, an assessment of the results of the Kursk operation will be possible only when it becomes clear with what losses and how organized the inevitable, in his opinion, retreat of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region will take place. "The biggest risk remains the scenario in which chaos or panic ensues - as was the case in 2022, when Russian troops withdrew to the Kharkiv region", concludes the Austrian analyst.
Author: Eugen Teise