Ukrainian and US officials continue to negotiate the terms of a temporary ceasefire for operations in the Black Sea and strikes on energy infrastructure.
This shows that they are not yet fully completed. Ukraine's Energy Ministry reported on March 26 that Ukraine and the US have agreed on a list of energy facilities against which Russia must stop striking. But the list contradicts Russia's demands.
This is according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ministry said that Russia's list does not prohibit strikes on Ukrainian oil and gas facilities - despite the Kremlin's announcement to the contrary.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on March 28 that Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov would present evidence of Russian violations to American officials during his upcoming visit to the United States.
The exact terms remain unclear, as no official trilateral statement or agreement has been published.
Zelensky said that Bulgaria, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, France and Romania could act as potential observers, but said that all countries would hold internal and international consultations on the "readiness" to monitor.
US Vice President J.D. Vance said on March 28 that "apparently" they were "almost done" with the maritime ceasefire talks.
The Kremlin appears to be using the talks to test the extent to which Russia can extract concessions from the West, as implementing a maritime ceasefire would not require easing sanctions. Bloomberg reported on March 28 that Russia is demanding that the European Union (EU) reconnect the Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank), one of Russia's largest banks, to the international banking system SWIFT as a precondition.
On March 27, European leaders advised European countries to refrain from lifting any sanctions against Russia as Russia continues to occupy and wage war against Ukraine.
European allies continue to provide financial and material support to Ukraine and have agreed to expand intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on March 28 that European countries had agreed at the summit of the "Coalition of the Willing" in Paris on March 27 to expand Ukraine's access to European intelligence, relevant technologies and satellites, and that several unspecified European countries have agreed to provide Ukraine with an unspecified degree of access to their ammunition stocks.
Zelensky noted that Ukraine has also agreed with unspecified partners on licenses to produce air defense, investments in Ukrainian drone and missile production, and to continue working on licensing artillery.
It remains unclear whether the agreed licenses provide for local production in Ukraine or foreign production elsewhere in Europe. Zelensky said the United Kingdom (UK) and Germany would organize a meeting in Ramstein in April 2025. French President Emmanuel Macron pledged on March 26 to provide Ukraine with an additional €2 billion (about $2.1 billion) military aid package that would include anti-tank missiles, surface-to-air missiles, air defense missiles, armored vehicles, drones, and additional Mirage fighter jets.
On March 28, Sweden instructed its armed forces to allocate a total of 80 million Swedish kronor (approximately $7.5 million) to Ukrainian coalitions for demining and drones.
Russian forces are reportedly ready to step up offensive operations in several areas of the frontline in the spring and summer of 2025 in the hope of influencing the ongoing ceasefire and peace talks. The Associated Press (AP), citing Ukrainian officials, reported on March 29 that Russian forces are preparing to launch a new offensive operation in an unspecified sector of the front line in the coming weeks to maximize pressure on Ukraine and increase Russia's influence in ongoing ceasefire talks.
Two diplomats from the G-7 countries told the AP that they agreed with recent warnings by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Russia is preparing for intensified ground operations in the Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizhia regions.
Two Ukrainian commanders said Russian forces have recently stepped up reconnaissance missions along the front line and offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction. Maj. Viktor Trekhubov, a spokesman for Ukraine's Khortytsia Group of Forces, told the AP that Russian forces have "recovered" after a temporary operational pause in the Pokrovsk direction in early March 2025. A Ukrainian serviceman said Ukrainian intelligence had spotted indicators of a significant group of Russian forces near Selidove (south of Pokrovsk).
A Ukrainian battalion commander operating in the Donetsk region told the AP that there were concerns that Russia might redeploy forces from the Kursk region to other areas of the front line, such as the Pokrovsk direction.
ISW has recently noted an intensification of Russian offensive operations in the Liman, Pokrovsk and Origov directions and ongoing Russian offensive operations in the northern part of Sumy region aimed at pushing Ukrainian forces out of remaining positions in the Kursk region.
Russian forces have yet to make significant tactical progress in these directions as a result of the increased activity, and ISW continues to observe localized Ukrainian counterattacks in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions. Russian forces have advanced to within at least three kilometers of the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border in two areas from the Pokrovsk direction, and the Kremlin is likely to use future Russian offensives in the southeasternmost part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to sow chaos and fear in the information space.
It is unlikely that the Russian military command would deploy forces from the Kursk Oblast if Russia intended to conduct a concerted offensive operation to capture or approach the city of Sumy, and Russia likely does not have sufficient operational-level reserves that can be deployed to conduct significant offensive operations against the cities of Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhia without redeploying forces already committed to other areas of the front line.
It is unlikely that the Russian army would be able to conduct three significant offensive efforts against major Ukrainian cities even after such a redeployment. Russia has suffered significant losses of armored vehicles and personnel over the past three years of fighting and has not demonstrated the ability to conduct complex operations involving multiple simultaneous axes of attack since the winter of 2022.
The Kremlin has so far appeared unable to generate enough new personnel through ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts to significantly increase the Russian force grouping in Ukraine or Russia’s available strategic and operational reserves to enter combat operations in Ukraine. Unless Russian President Vladimir Putin chooses to conduct a deeply unpopular partial call-up in the near future, which currently seems unlikely.
Russia continues to attack civilian infrastructure in Ukraine amid reports of changing and more lethal Russian strike tactics. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on March 29 that Russian forces had launched 172 strike and decoy drones from the direction of the city of Kursk; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea on the night of 28–29 March.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces had shot down 94 drones and that 69 decoy drones had been "lost", possibly due to Ukrainian interference in electronic warfare. The head of the Kryvyi Rih military administration, Oleksandr Vilkul, reported on 29 March that Russian forces had also launched ballistic missile strikes against Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Ukrainian officials reported that Russian strikes had damaged a hotel and restaurant complex, houses and buildings in the city of Dnipro, killing and wounding civilians.