MOSCOW, December 12. /TASS/. Russia may continue gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine in reduced volumes (4-7 bcm) and without a transit agreement that expires at the end of this year if fuel rights are transferred to the Russian-Ukrainian border. At the same time "Gazprom" has an opportunity to increase pumping towards the EU through Turkey, as well as direct flows to Central Asia, said in an interview with TASS, an analyst from the financial group Finam Sergey Kaufman.
"It is not yet possible to guarantee that supplies will not continue without a contract. Given the interest of European consumers, we do not rule out about 4-7 billion. cubic meters of the current 15 billion can continue to be delivered to Europe under a scheme that provides for the transfer of property rights to the gas already at the Russian-Ukrainian border. Using the example of the work of the southern branch of "Druzhba" we can conclude that, in principle, the Ukrainian side is not against the transit of Russian hydrocarbons, as long as it brings profit. However, it is difficult to give accurate predictions due to the high politicization of this issue”, he said.
"If the transit through Ukraine is completely stopped, then in 2025 the export through the pipelines of "Gazprom" will only be able to decrease by 5-7 billion. cubic m", notes the expert. The company has many alternative delivery routes. So are the "Turkish Stream" and "Blue Stream" gas pipelines. are designed in such a way that in a relatively short time (1-2 years) their capacity can be increased by a total of 6-7 billion. cubic meters, which would allow more gas to be delivered to Europe via this route.
In addition, the potential for growth in pumping to Central Asia remains. According to Kaufman, by 2026 the volume of deliveries in the region may reach 12 billion. cube m. per year. In addition, joint projects with Iran are being discussed, including possible gas supplies in the northern part of the country.
In the long term "Gazprom" there are plans to increase exports to China to 48 billion. cubic meters until 2028-2029 (after Power of Siberia and the Far East route reach full capacity), as well as an additional project in the form of Power of Siberia - 2 (50 billion cubic meters), or in the form of transit through Kazakhstan (35 billion cubic meters) . However, the prospect of implementing the last two options is no earlier than 2031-2033, the expert noted. "Gazprom" also continues the implementation of the Baltic LNG project in Ust-Luga with a capacity of 13 million tons of LNG per year. The construction of the plant is delayed due to the withdrawal of Western partners, but its commissioning is possible in 2027-2028.
The agreement on the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory expires at the end of 2024. and envisages pumping 40 bln. cubic meters per year. Transit through Ukraine remains the only route for supplies of Russian gas to the countries of Western and Central Europe.
Gas supplies via Turk Stream and "Blue Stream" intended for Turkey and the countries of Southern and South-Eastern Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Kiev will not extend the transit of Russian gas to Europe until 2025. The head of state recalled that Ukraine joined European laws and had to reserve pumping capacity in advance, but this deadline was missed.