They say that Bulgaria's future for decades to come depends on its actions now. The dangers facing the country are many. Therefore, without unnecessary panic, it is necessary to act on five key issues. By Daniel Smilov.
The world order is shaking and the internal political order in Bulgaria is shaking. We are used to it as champions of elections and parliamentary crises on a global scale. The new thing at the moment, however, is that in the general shaking, many have lost their bearings and do not know what they are fighting for. Putinists have become Trumpophiles and have started to bash Europe for wanting to break with America. Until now, they saw the US as the great enemy and insisted that the EU emancipate itself from it. Some of the Euro-Atlantics have become just Atlanticists and talked about "peace": according to them, aid to Ukraine should be stopped and all the money should go to "people". As if they have been spent on animals so far. Mr. Peevski is not alone in the camp of the Atlanticists who abandoned the "euro" prefix: Boyko Borisov sadly stated that if he were prime minister, he would already be with Trump, and Viktor (Orban) would have dinner with him, not with Macron. You see!
If the situation were not serious, it would be extremely comical. But those who say that Bulgaria's future for decades to come depends on its actions now are also right. The dangers facing the country are many, but the good thing is that they are not inevitable and the damage can at least be minimized. This means that without unnecessary panic, it is necessary to act systematically and consistently on these issues:
1) Avoiding Ukraine's capitulation
Many of the "peace fighters" imagine the end of the war as Ukraine's capitulation and acceptance of the Russian conditions in their entirety. This is the worst option for Bulgaria, because one of these conditions is for NATO to withdraw to its pre-1997 borders (which de facto means that Eastern Europe will remain defenseless). Another condition that Russia sets is for Ukraine to have a puppet government in the Russian style. This is also extremely bad for Bulgaria, because we will end up with an aggressive autocracy a hundred kilometers from our land borders, especially if the same happens in Moldova. The battle is ultimately not just about where the state borders will pass, but whether the peoples will be governed democratically (in the European way) or autocratically (in the Russian way). Anyone who values freedom – in all its aspects – should be aware of this. And Bulgarians clearly do, because according to the latest Alpha Research survey, 59% support the European position on guaranteeing the sovereignty and freedom of Ukraine, while only 14% support Donald Trump's approach, which does not provide any guarantees for Ukrainians. And perhaps this refusal of any guarantees was responsible for the international shock from the ill-fated meeting between Zelensky, Trump and Vance, in which the two Americans seemed to expect their guest to capitulate on air. He did not do so, and Europe stood firmly behind him, which is actually the true Bulgarian interest. Now it remains for our government to consistently defend this position, and it seems that Prime Minister Zhelyazkov intends to do so. But others around him are far more flexible, and it is not just the BSP and ITN;
2) Always with Europe, never against the USA
The tension between the US and its European partners is real and should not be underestimated. However, it should be approached from the perspective that there are no countries in the world that are closer in terms of values and politics. So even in the worst case scenario - the US withdrawing from NATO - Europeans will still maintain significant ties and will rely to one degree or another on their Atlantic friends. At the very least, Europe needs a little time - about 5-6 years - to become a coherent military force. The bad thing is that it is not really about money - and now the military budget of the EU plus the UK is at least the third largest in the world. If you add up the tanks and aircraft that the 28 countries have, they will be comparable in number to that of Russia. But the money, the equipment, and the capabilities are scattered across 28 jurisdictions with relatively little coordination, especially if NATO leaves the picture. In this sense, in addition to the 800 billion for military spending in the coming years, the EU and the UK need military-political integration that would coordinate both their military capabilities and their production complexes. This will be much more difficult than finding the money, which happened almost instantly (at the same time, Germany agreed to increase its military spending and the same happened at the European level). In the five-year period that this is about to happen, help from the US would be invaluable. Is Trump willing to give it? Rather not, but the Europeans have their trump cards to demand and impose such a solution. And in this picture, we must unequivocally be on the side of an integrated Europe and not only not to hinder, but also to help achieve it. Because otherwise we risk remaining in (temporarily) no man's land between new empires;
3) Are we for values or interests?
Many have already announced that the world has changed and values have been replaced by interests. There are many people in the world - there are certainly those who only have interests. This question is whether Bulgaria will remain a democracy, whether it will fight to be a pure and holy republic, or whether it will become a patrimonial kingdom of assorted corrupt people. The struggle in the country for a pure and holy republic has not ended with a complete victory of good, but at least it has not been officially abandoned. But it is also evident from space that there are people who lick each other like hungry cats around the idea of a patrimonial kingdom. Power and money decide everything: today we have some values, but if they are not beneficial to us, tomorrow we will change them. If Bulgaria has one main task - then avoiding this perversion is a good candidate for a central priority;
4) How do we confront China?
President Trump is right to define China as the main threat to the Western way of life, because China is now both economically and militarily powerful. It also offers an alternative political order and is extremely competitive with the West, unlike the USSR in the past. From this perspective, the US and its new administration should be supported. But what is problematic is that they seem to intend to alienate Europe and get closer to the Putin regime, forming an almost anti-China bloc in which Europe will have to be present willy-nilly as a secondary player. This plan, if it is real at all, seems deeply problematic. Putin, for example, why should he be loyal to the West if in a possible conflict with China, Xi Jinping offers him more. Let's say Eastern Europe or why not all of Europe. And even if he didn't offer anything, Putin would still calculate who would get out of the conflict in what way. Moreover, even if Trump's plan were realistic and he could get so close to the Russians that they would trust him, why would he need to ruin his relations with Europe? After all, Europe is very, very rich and together with the US they are twice as strong as they are separately. This is also important for Bulgaria - it should try (as much as it can) to support Western unity, which is also unity on a value-based, democratic basis. Opportunism like that of Viktor Orban will bring us nothing. And even for him it only brings isolation and a weak economy;
5) We need a government at least until the eurozone
Internally, we need relative stability and a regular government. The problem is that the current one is doing everything possible to overthrow itself. Even if we leave aside curious blunders like the one with UNESCO, in which we admit that after half a year of preparation, we are giving up an important meeting in favor of France, for which we will pay 2 million euros to the French. And they will organize the meeting in the remaining days before it. Although monumental, this blunder still pales in comparison to the seriousness of the political moment. More importantly, instead of doing the normal thing - integrating Dogan's MRF into the government, the three other parties in the ruling coalition are actually isolating it. And they are isolating it in favor of MRF-Peevski, which is now almost officially supporting the government even for the budget. And billions (about seven) leva will pour into the new budget in the Development Bank and other state-owned enterprises, which in principle have worked very well with businesses related to Peevski. But most of all, the failure to elect deputy ministers and people in the regulators actually preserves the status quo, convenient for Borisov and Peevski. In this situation, it is not excluded that DPS-Dogan will rock the boat and leave the government. What will happen then is difficult to predict. But elections are not excluded, and this is a serious risk for the country.
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Values are not some kind of gimmick in politics. They are the anchor that saves you in a storm, they are a compass in times of international fog. Those who adapt to one or another administration in one or another foreign capital are precisely those who are comical and spin like top-wheels. From Euro-Atlanticists become Putinists and vice versa. Or they keep quiet on the sidelines - lest they make a mistake with their choice. Bulgaria is a country proud of its freedom. And freedom is still a value.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State Gazette as a whole.