Taiwan fears it cannot count on US support: Will Trump defend the island or sacrifice it for some "deal" with China? And whether that depends on something completely absurd. Comment by Alexander Görlach:
Taiwan is closely watching the drama unfolding between the Trump administration and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since the war there began more than three years ago, many Taiwanese have developed sympathy for the Ukrainian cause. While their own situations are different, the parallels cannot be ignored. In both cases, a democratic society is under pressure from a dictatorial power seeking to expand its influence. That is why the Taiwanese support the Ukrainians and hope for their success against Moscow.
China has secured allies
Chinese ruler Xi Jinping is closely watching how Putin's war is unfolding - not least to learn lessons for his own approach to Taiwan. What is clear, however, is that in recent years Beijing has stepped up its diplomatic efforts to spread its views on Taiwan to the world. Especially in the global South, some countries have adopted Chinese rhetoric, and if Xi does dare to launch an attack one day, he can certainly count on the fact that there will be countries on his side.
We have heard from Donald Trump's entourage more than once that the US president intends to conclude a "very big deal" with China. It is still unclear exactly what this deal will look like and what it will contain. At the same time, Trump increased punitive tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percent, bringing them to 20 percent. These measures are weighing on the Chinese economy, but it is not yet clear whether they are part of a larger negotiating poker. It remains unclear what this "grand bargain" with Beijing will look like - especially in light of the current rapprochement between the United States and Russia, which observers say aims to drive Moscow and Beijing apart.
Is Taiwan's defense guaranteed by semiconductors?
There are concerns in Taiwan that Donald Trump could reduce his support for the island if he deems it politically or economically advantageous and if Xi asks him to. Although Trump recently said that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be "catastrophic", his long-term position remains unpredictable. While the supply of America's most advanced chips depends on the island, some guarantee of protection can be expected.
So far, support for Taiwan has been a bipartisan consensus in the US Congress - both Democrats and Republicans have emphasized the island's right to decide its own fate. But Trump is doing everything he can to keep the most important decisions in his own hands and not to take Congress into account.
Meanwhile, he has complained about Taiwan that the small island state has taken away the prospects of the US in the production of semiconductors. As a result, the leading Taiwanese chip manufacturer TSMC announced that it would invest another $ 100 billion in a plant in Arizona in addition to the $ 65 billion already promised. In the future, the extremely complex and valuable chips will also be produced directly in the US.
Until now, Taiwan has kept its sensitive production facilities only on the island. This “silicon shield“ was a guarantee of security that the US and its allies would actually come to Taiwan's aid in the event of an attack by China. If not out of love for Taiwan, then at least to secure access to the very important chips.
Without the US, this protection is not possible
If the US falls away as a defensive power, countries in the region, which also fear whether Trump would protect them, will have to look for new cooperation. Taiwan, for example, has already established good relations with the Philippines and Japan. Both countries feel threatened by China's provocations, and Japan - by its vassal North Korea. During the Biden administration, Washington strengthened smaller alliances in the region to create a local security architecture.
However, it is doubtful whether it could function against China in an emergency if the US was not involved. Because, as in Europe, everything depends on whether the US still stays on board. Moreover, it is highly doubtful whether Japan or the Philippines would risk war with China over Taiwan. Even if Donald Trump does not push Taiwan away in the most unscrupulous way, as some fear, he will in any case greatly increase the price of American security guarantees.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DW as a whole.