In a few days, Greenland will elect a new parliament. Never before have elections there aroused such great interest around the world as they do now. The reason: the appetites of US President Donald Trump.
In normal times, the Greenland elections would certainly not be of particular interest to the world: about 40,000 eligible voters elect 31 deputies - on an island that is not fully autonomous. But this time is different, because geopolitical turmoil in the northern hemisphere could also be affected by this vote.
On the one hand, because supporters of Greenland's independence hope that they will give them a strong mandate for complete separation from Denmark. But above all, because US President Donald Trump is increasingly vocal in his claims to the world's largest island.
Why Trump wants to annex Greenland to the US
Trump speaks of US security interests, for which the US should take control of Greenland. Since the 1950s, the US has operated the "Pitufik" space base in the northwestern part of the island, which played an important role in the early detection and protection against possible Soviet attacks during the Cold War under the name "Thule" air base. In addition to security issues, economic considerations probably also play a role, since the southern part of the island is believed to contain deposits of valuable natural resources such as oil, gas, gold, uranium and zinc. And climate change will make it easier to develop them.
Even during his first term, Trump made an offer to Denmark to buy Greenland, which the government in Copenhagen immediately rejected. But during his second term, similar statements became more frequent - regarding Canada, the Panama Canal, the Gaza Strip - and again Greenland. Even before returning to the White House, Trump sent his son Donald Jr. to Greenland on an official "tourist trip".
A few weeks later, a survey was published according to which only six percent of Greenlanders were "in favor" of their island becoming part of the United States - 85 percent were against.
In his speech to the US Congress in early March, President Trump addressed the Greenlandic population directly: "We support your right to determine your own future". Two sentences later, however, Trump himself questioned how seriously he took this right to self-determination when he stated: "I think we're going to get [Greenland]." One way or another, we will get it."
In this confusing situation, Greenland has realized that there may be attempts to influence the elections from the outside - from Russia or China, which pursue their own security and economic policy goals in the Arctic.
The Danish intelligence services have issued a very specific warning about Russian disinformation: "We are observing numerous cases of fake profiles on social networks", including accounts that "impersonate Danish and Greenlandic politicians and contribute to the polarization of public opinion".
Johan Farkas, an associate professor of media studies at the University of Copenhagen who specializes in disinformation, is familiar with such publications that have also been distributed in Russian media. He believes that the Greenlandic population, which mainly speaks Greenlandic and Danish, is unlikely to be influenced in this way: "Greenland is a very small and close-knit community. I don't think it's easy to reach them with fake accounts or similar means that we know from other election influence programs," says Farkas.
Expert: Concerns about influence from Musk or Trump
"My concern as a disinformation researcher is more about the influence of big politics: so if Elon Musk were to conduct live interviews with individual candidates or Trump were to speak out in favor of certain candidates, that would clearly be a threat to free and fair elections."
Since the beginning of the year, Greenland has also been in turmoil. Trump-supporting influencers have reportedly been handing out $100 bills in the capital, Nuuk. Greenlandic MP Kuno Fenker traveled to Washington and met with a Republican Party representative who has spoken out in favor of Greenland joining the United States. Just days before the election next Tuesday, Farkas says the danger is not yet averted. "But a month ago I was more worried than I am today."
In early February, the Greenland parliament passed a law banning foreign (except Danish) and anonymous donations to political parties.
What do Greenlanders themselves want?
The roughly 57,000 Greenlanders actually have their own issues that play a role in the election - for example, which mineral resources should be developed and whether and which foreign partners should receive concessions for this. Revenue from the mining industry is also an argument put forward by supporters of independence, since until now about a third of Greenland's budget has been financed by Danish subsidies.
For the head of government, Mute Egede, who is running for a second term, independence remains a goal: "We don't want to be Americans or Danes, we are Greenlanders. "Americans and their leader need to understand this," Egede wrote on Facebook after Trump's speech to Congress.
According to disinformation expert Johan Farkas, this situation will continue after the March 11 election: "It is important to broaden our perspective and recognize that this threat will not simply disappear after the election. As long as the US desire to conquer Greenland is stated, the risk of such influence campaigns will remain."