"BSP - United Left" announced that the two reactors for the "Belene" NPP will not be sold, and this is a decision of the coalition. They are part of our energy security and economic independence. Nuclear energy is stable, cheap and predictable. We have a site and personnel to produce it. The sale would have been a serious mistake. This was stated by the leader of "BSP - United Left" Atanas Zafirov. Do we have the potential to develop two nuclear projects… Nuclear expert Prof. Georgi Kaschiev speaks to FACTI.
- Prof. Kaschiev, BSP again raised the topic of the construction of the Belene NPP, after they announced that they would not sell the equipment to Ukraine. Over the years, we have gone through definitions such as "nothing is happening at the site", "goal", etc. Does Bulgaria have the potential to build two nuclear power plants - I mean units 7 and 8 of the Kozloduy NPP and the Belene NPP?
- No. In my opinion, we will not even be able to build units 7 and 8 at the Kozloduy NPP, but this is a topic for a much longer conversation.
- Why are you so pessimistic?
- I am an analyst of risks in nuclear power plants and I see a number of risks that this project faces. We start from the fact that there is a risk that the government's decision itself to build Units 7 and 8 will be declared illegal by the court, a decision of the Supreme Administrative Court is expected, because:
- there is a risk that the legal force of the environmental impact assessment report will be challenged and overturned
- there is a risk of failure in raising the necessary funding
- there is a risk of failure of activities that have not started at all, namely for conducting negotiations and receiving a notification from the European Commission (EC), etc.
The EC has clearly stated intentions that they will not support as "green" projects the construction of new nuclear capacities in countries that do not have real plans that are supported by detailed financial estimates for the construction of a deep geological repository (DGR) for the disposal of spent fuel and/or highly radioactive waste by 2050. The fact is that we have been in a penal procedure - the second stage, for five years now by the EC, because we do not have a modern program and Strategy for the safety of spent fuel and radioactive waste management, as well as for the construction of a DGH. Not to mention that the current Strategy is until 2030, which means that Bulgaria does not know what it will do after that.
- Isn't this last one related to the fact that in principle we exported spent nuclear fuel to Russia, because we had such a contract, but in recent years we have not done so and the spent fuel is currently stored on the territory of Bulgaria?
- The question is that, as I said, the current Strategy is until 2030. What happens? We plan to put new reactors into operation in 2033, 2034 or 2035, but we cannot say what we will do with the spent fuel from them, as well as from the existing ones. This is complete nonsense. In addition, the commission's concerns are mainly that Bulgaria, although it has long been saying that it will build its own such a repository, has done nothing to select a site for it, nor do we have approved plans and measures to finance the costs of its construction.
Not to mention that the discussion of state aid and the funds that our country intends to invest in units 7 and 8 of the Kozloduy NPP has yet to begin. I am aware of how the negotiations for the construction of the Paks 2 NPP in Hungary went. They lasted three years, and Austria is now appealing this decision of the commission to approve state aid from the Hungarian state for the Paks 2 NPP, and it is not excluded that the case will be reviewed again. Hungary decided to build this NPP in 2013, but so far only preparatory work has been underway. Let me remind you that in 2018, when the topic of resurrecting the Belene NPP project was raised again in our country, some people were beating their chests and hysterically screaming that the Hungarians have already started building, and we are delaying. The truth is that the Hungarians have only been carrying out preparatory actions so far, and the real construction is expected to begin this year.
I also know how the negotiations between Poland and the EC are developing for the construction of three reactors of the type that the parliament chose for the 7th and 8th units without discussion and without a tender in our country - the AP-1000. They started 10 months ago. The estimate for the initial costs for these three reactors in Poland is 49 billion dollars. So the price for two reactors comes out to somewhere over 32 billion dollars. And in our country they are talking about how they would have a "red line" of 14 billion euros and so on. In general, things that I don't think the government is really taking into account.
- Westinghouse reactors will be built in Poland…
- Yes, the same ones we are planning in our country. The reactors are designed by Westinghouse, and the American company Bechtel will carry out the construction. There are "experts" in our country who say that the reactors in Poland were not AP-1000, without apparently having read a single line on the subject. There are reports about this from the Polish nuclear company, the EC, and about a week ago, the President of Poland Andrzej Duda signed a decree approving 15 billion euros in state funding for this project. Experience shows that underestimating the initial costs leads to a fiasco in raising the necessary financing and to a significant risk of the project failing after spending many billions.
- And what do you think of the topic of “Belene“...
- How can I tell you…
- It is certainly convenient for politicians, but…
- It seems to me that we will only give the world a reason to laugh at us for the “Belene“ NPP. Look at these Bulgarians who clearly do not know what they want to do. Now they will build “Belene“, now they will not, now they will sell the equipment, now they will not sell it. After all, the parliament decided to sell this equipment…
- Rather, negotiations should be held with Ukraine and if an agreement is reached, it should be sold. The deal itself, if finalized, still has to go through the National Assembly…
- In my opinion, the negotiations with Ukraine are over because Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a decree that allows the equipment to be purchased. The price, according to Ukrainian media, is 1.2 billion leva. And now, after all these negotiations, we are telling Ukraine and the world that we will not sell it. And something else. Two of the current ministers, as far as I remember - Mrs. Temenuzhka Petkova and Mr. Zhecho Stankov, were among the submitters of this proposal in the Energy Committee in the parliament to sell the equipment to Ukraine. A number of other prominent politicians supported it and the parliament as a whole voted to sell it. And now what will they say? Our politicians are making us feel uncomfortable with these inconsistent actions regarding this notorious NPP “Belene“.
- Is there any potential to resume this project. After all, we have purchased some equipment there, the site itself will have to be renovated, built, expanded, secured, and so on, but we have something... - First of all, I think that this proposal - to sell the reactors of the Belene NPP - was made without any analysis of the possible options. For me, it should have been clarified first whether the intention of the Ukrainian side to use them to complete the 3rd and 4th units of the Khmelnytsky NPP was real and feasible. And in this sense, I think that perhaps the best solution was not to sell the equipment (to look for quick profits), but to become shareholders in the construction of these two units. That is, to participate with the equipment for the reactor islands, and not to sell it for 1.2 billion leva, because it is now worth much more. To have a percentage stake in this power plant, which is the part of this equipment, and to use the corresponding part of the electricity produced. Otherwise, in our country, things have come down to "let's sell it, let's get some money to invest in the 7th and 8th units of the "Kozloduy" NPP. After all, this equipment was bought with money from the National Electricity Company (NEK) and is its property. In fact, the parliament ordered NEK that NEK would not give the money from the sale for their projects - construction of new PAWPPs, repair of PAWPP "Chaira" and so on, but would give it to another company for the construction of nuclear units. This is completely contrary to the EC's requirements for normal competition. Let me remind you of what happened with the Hungarian nuclear power plant "Paks 2". The EC agreed to grant state aid for the construction of the plant, but the EC unequivocally ordered that the new company to be established must be separated in every way - administrative, financial, legal, etc., from the currently existing "Paks" nuclear power plant, which has four VVER-440 reactors, but they are of the newer model, not like our 1-4 units. There are simply realities that - I don't know why - our politicians do not take into account or simply do not know them and are putting out false populist propaganda theses.
As for building the Belene nuclear power plant, I think that everything should be started from scratch.
It starts with an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report, because I think that no one in the EU will recognize a report that was made 20 years ago and according to old standards. My opinion is that a regulatory review of the condition of the site should be carried out, mainly of the ballast pillows, and it should be licensed anew. Both activities should take into account the new directives that have come into force. Another issue is this project, according to which the power plant was supposed to be built. Let's not be fooled - we have equipment that was manufactured more than 10 years ago, without following good international practices, which is not even a complete set. The project itself for the reactor part of the power plant was created more than 30 years ago. Russia has not been building reactors according to this project for many years, but much more modern and more powerful ones. Not to mention that without the participation of Russian factories, which are manufacturers, without the design and scientific organizations of Russia, which has declared us an enemy state, we cannot do anything. Various people talk about how they got in touch with French companies a few years ago, who told them that a reactor based on a French project could be built with this equipment. Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit. I had the opportunity to talk to the head of the French company "Framatom", Mr. Fontana, who said that he had forbidden his engineers to deal with such nonsense. End of the matter. What can I tell you? I don't know how they think this project can get off the ground. The 2011 estimate for the initial costs for the "Belene" NPP was around 10.5 billion euros. Now, just taking into account inflation, the project must have increased in price to 14-15 billion euros, not to mention the increase in the price of metals, etc. But, let me say my opinion again - without normal cooperation with Russian companies, the project will not be implemented. There is a separate issue that if the turbine is to be replaced with a more modern one, the entire steam turbine part must be redesigned, which is in itself a very complex task. Talks with the EC must be restarted to obtain a notification, I have already talked about the problems that will arise. Experience shows that if everything goes more or less well, it will be 10-12 years before the start of actual construction. There is a separate issue of personnel. We do not have the engineers and technicians with whom to build the 7th and 8th units and operate them, and now they are saying how we will also build the Belene NPP. We will not do anything and we will fall off both chairs. Let me remind you that we were going to build an electric vehicle plant, we were going to build a battery plant and whatnot.
- Let's still look a little more optimistically…
- I hope that the parliament will show common sense after they made a decision to sell, and let's see what arguments they will use to change it. And now, because the BSP is obviously twisting the hands of the ruling coalition so that it doesn't fall apart, they are telling them to support the "comrades". It was clear that this would happen. I recently heard a BSP MP say in a very firm tone and a stony face that as long as the BSP is in power, the equipment for the "Belene" NPP will not be sold. And why it will not be sold and what we will do with it - he did not say. In my opinion, it will sit quietly under the plastic and degrade.