Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin said that any de-escalation of the conflict with Russia in the near future would not mean an end to the war, but only a change in Moscow's strategy.
In an interview with the BBC, Klimkin, who headed the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry from 2014 to 2019, stressed that for Russian President Vladimir Putin, the existence of Ukraine is a direct challenge to his regime.
"Putin will do everything possible to destroy Ukraine as an independent state, because he considers its very existence a threat to his concept of the 'Russian world,'" he said.
According to Klimkin, even a possible pause in hostilities will not end Russian aggression.
"Russia will move on to new methods of undermining Ukrainian statehood - economically, politically and socially. They want to turn us into a buffer zone between the West and their world, which they already define as a separate civilization," he added.
Regarding US foreign policy under President Donald Trump, Klimkin noted that Trump's logic in many ways coincides with Putin's.
"Both leaders are seeking to expand their spheres of influence. Trump wants to consolidate the era of American dominance, while Putin seeks to strengthen Russia's 'state-civilization,'" he explained.
Klimkin believes that the probability of concluding agreements between the two leaders is high, but expressed doubts about their durability and implementation.
"The key issue remains Ukrainian sovereignty. Russia will try to impose federalization and change our political model, while we must defend our right to determine our future as part of Europe and the West," Klimkin concluded.
Klimkin drew attention to a key aspect in relations between Russia and Ukraine - the lack of direct dialogue between the leaders.
"Putin does not want to talk to us at all. He will talk to Trump, the Americans, the Europeans and the Chinese. While it is possible that there are people in Moscow who treacherously respect Ukraine, they are certainly absent from the Russian leadership."
Klimkin added that Russia sees Ukraine as part of itself, albeit a "bad part", and will try to negotiate its future behind Kiev's back.
According to Klimkin, a ceasefire could reduce the dynamics of Western aid to Ukraine. "The West will be less motivated to provide military and financial assistance, which Russia understands perfectly well and will take advantage of."
However, he believes that Europe and the United States will continue to support Ukraine, albeit with more limited resources.
Klimkin expressed confidence that Ukraine will continue to exist, but stressed that the fight for its independence will require a new social contract and investments in security.
"Ukraine must become an effective state that knows how to defend itself and its place in Europe."
According to him, the country must demonstrate its importance to the Western world by pointing to the geopolitical and economic benefits of its partnership.
Klimkin also expressed cautious optimism: "Ukraine will exist. The probability of a ceasefire is over 50%. However, there will be no real guarantees of security, and the process of European integration will continue with many challenges."