We in the West tend to believe that conflicts are some kind of misunderstanding and that if we just sit down at the negotiating table, we can reach a deal that benefits everyone. But dictators are not interested in such results.
If we allow Vladimir Putin to reward his invasion of Ukraine with victory, it will not be limited to Ukraine. And we will pay with our blood, as well as lose our honor.
This opinion was expressed to Europe's Edge (CEPA) by political analyst Vitaly Garber, former NATO assistant secretary general and US deputy defense secretary.
Belief in the regime's propaganda plays an important role in Putin's strategy. If he manages to keep the annexed Crimea and Zaporizhia, Kherson and Donbas, he will be rewarded with popular recognition. He will forever become a Russian hero, a man with his place in the history books. This is what he wants more than anything else. Russia will also acquire over $26 trillion in titanium, lithium and other rare earth resources in the occupied Donbas. We should not allow Putin to congratulate himself on his victory in Ukraine.
If Putin manages to hold onto most of the territory Russia has occupied, he will become a national hero. One should therefore be skeptical of claims that the Russian president can stop the war at this stage.
Many are calling for peace and negotiations to end the war. Among them is the newly elected president of the United States. Continuing to support Ukraine in restoring its internationally recognized borders and sovereignty will mean further human and resource losses. But war in the 21st century is incredibly expensive.
It is understandable that some would seek an alternative. Administrations may even think that they have a choice and can shape events to their liking. But as the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan showed, there are risks in abandoning conflicts you don’t like.
In the case of Ukraine, such a choice would come at a huge cost. There would be lasting economic and security damage to the United States and its allies. The potential human cost of abandoning millions of people to tyranny and the reputational cost to American leadership would be tragic and long-lasting.
The Russians believe their own propaganda that both Ukraine and Belarus are fundamentally “the same people” and therefore not aggressors but liberators.