Russia's war in Ukraine continues to change global security and NATO and EU leaders call for a significant increase in defense spending, writes the European Newsroom - a platform for cooperation between 23 European news agencies, including BTA.
The debates cover a wide range of issues - from allocating a larger percentage of GDP to defense by allied countries to taking on joint EU loans. All these discussions are a clear sign that Europe is struggling to fill the gaps in its defense capabilities.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Monday called on European Union member states to significantly increase their defense spending. "We are safe now, but in five years we may not be," he noted.
The former Dutch prime minister warned that the two percent of GDP that alliance countries are currently required to spend on defense is "not enough" to deal with the growing risks from Russia. Rutte said that to counter the threats, NATO countries may need to allocate 3.6-3.7 percent of their GDP.
Rutte headed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a powerful 32-nation military alliance, in October, and before that was prime minister of the Netherlands for 14 years.
Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was seen as a wake-up call for Europe and its underfunded defense industry, neglected for years after the end of the Cold War. But even though EU countries have increased their military budgets since the Russian invasion began and Brussels has made a number of efforts to increase production, European weapons production still lags significantly behind Russia's.
At a conference organized in December by the Carnegie Europe think tank, in Brussels, Rutte called on allies to increase military spending and switch to a "military mindset" to avoid another conflict on their soil.
"What is happening in Ukraine could happen here too. And regardless of the outcome of this war, we will not be safe in the future if we are not prepared to deal with the danger."
"Europe's "Big Bang" in the field of defense
Rutte emphasized the thesis of the first European Commissioner for Defense, Andrius Kubilius, who on Saturday again called for a "big bang" in this area in a social media post.
The push for stronger European defense has been revived by US President-elect Donald Trump's demand that NATO countries increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP, repeating his long-standing position that they are not paying enough.
Trump has long been skeptical of NATO, the cornerstone of European security since World War II. Last month, the US president-elect repeated his now-familiar threat to leave the alliance if its members do not increase their spending.
Trump will take office almost three years after the start of the Russian invasion. In addition, tired Ukrainian forces are currently being pushed back on the front lines. EU foreign policy chief Kaia Kallas reiterated last week that she hoped the US would maintain its support for Kiev, but said that if it did not, Europe was ready to take the initiative.
In a social media post on Saturday, EU Defence Commissioner Kubilius presented a chart produced by the Economist magazine that shows the geographical distance of each EU country from Russia, measured in kilometres, as well as the share of GDP allocated by each member state to defence in 2023. Countries such as Ireland, Portugal and Spain are at the bottom of the scale, while countries close to Russia such as Estonia and Poland are at the top.
In 2023 NATO has set a minimum defense spending target of two percent of GDP as Russia’s war in Ukraine has prompted the military alliance to bolster its eastern flank and increase spending.
NATO estimates that most of the bloc’s 32 members will reach the two percent target by 2024, but some are still struggling.
NATO defense spending estimates reveal gaps
Poland and Estonia top the defense spending rankings. NATO estimates show that as of mid-June 2024, they were spending 4.12 and 3.43 percent of their GDP on defense, respectively. The United States is next with 3.38 percent.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen echoed Rutte’s assessment that NATO countries may have to spend more than the current target. Although Denmark is already exceeding the target, spending 2.37% of its GDP on defense in 2024, Frederiksen noted that her country “will rearm more and that will be expensive.”
Germany, the EU’s largest economy, spends 2.12% of its GDP on defense, according to NATO data. In November, German defense giant Rheinmetall and Lithuania signed agreements to build a munitions factory worth 180 million euros. Lithuania is a member of the EU and NATO and shares a border with Russia.
With its 2.18% of GDP in 2024, Bulgaria is also exceeding the alliance’s target. Back in October, Defense Minister Atanas Zapryanov said that there was a growing consensus in Bulgaria on the need to increase defense spending to reach 2.5% of GDP.
The neighboring Republic of North Macedonia is spending 2.22% of its GDP on defense, according to NATO estimates for 2024.
The Czech Defense Ministry said that the Czech Republic also met the two percent commitment last year. According to NATO estimates for 2024, the country is spending 2.10% of its GDP on defense.
The Czech Defense Ministry said that Prague also met the 2% commitment last year. NATO estimates for 2024 indicate that the Czech Republic spent 2.10% of its GDP on defense.
Last week, Czech President Petr Pavel said it was realistic to expect spending to rise to 3% of GDP by 2030. Speaking to Czech Radio, however, he stressed that defense spending should be determined by justified needs related to security threats, rather than arguing about percentages that he believes are misleading.
Among the countries falling short of the two percent target are Spain (1.28%), Slovenia and Luxembourg (1.29%), Belgium (1.30%), Canada (1.37%), Italy (1.49%), Portugal (1.55%) and Croatia (1.81%).
Last week, Portugal's Defense Minister Nuno Melo stressed that his country aims to achieve the target by 2029, which "does not mean that these targets cannot be changed along the way, depending on the circumstances". In December, Prime Minister Luiz Montenegro said his government "will try to allocate resources in all areas, including defense."
Although falling short of the target, Slovenia has significantly increased its planned defense budget. The 2025 budget includes more than 1.2 billion euros, a 20% increase over the previous year's defense spending, and more than 1.3 billion euros are planned for 2026.
Some EU countries, including France and Estonia, are calling for the bloc to use common loans to finance defense spending. Europe is using a similar approach to finance its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, other countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands, have so far resisted taking steps in this direction.
Greece, which according to NATO estimates for 2024 Greece, which spends a remarkable 3.08% of its GDP on defense, supports the creation of an EU fund to finance common defense spending. In December, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, backed calls for Eurobonds for defense, saying it was necessary to "mobilize European resources" and to create a European defense fund.
EU defense retreat
On February 3, EU leaders will meet for an informal summit at Limon Castle in the Belgian countryside, an hour's drive from Brussels, to discuss how to boost European defense.
"Europe must take greater responsibility for its own defense," wrote European Council President Antonio Costa in an invitation to EU heads of state and government to attend the meeting on Monday.
"I believe we share a similar assessment of the threats facing Europe," Costa said, adding that Russia's aggression against Ukraine means a new "high-intensity war" on the continent. The European Council President also warned that EU member states face a growing threat from hybrid and cyber attacks.
Costa has also invited NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to the meeting.
The talks will take place at a crucial time, as Ukraine's leading backers - Britain and the EU - are watching with alarm Trump's promises to bring a swift end to the conflict after he takes office on January 20.
The February meeting will feed into a planned White Paper on the future of European defence, with the topic to be revisited at a summit of EU leaders in June.