The rating of the conservative bloc of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) has fallen below 30% five weeks before the Bundestag elections. The gap between the conservatives and Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) has thus narrowed to 13 percentage points, according to a survey conducted by the INSA sociological institute for the Bild am Sonntag newspaper.
Currently, 29% of voters are ready to vote for the CDU/CSU, which is 1 percentage point less than the previous week. The last time the conservatives' support fell below 30% in INSA polls was in April 2024. However, the CDU/CSU still leads the ranking of political parties in Germany. The SPD, which was in third place, received the support of 16% of respondents (no change).
Second place was taken by the party “Alternative for Germany“. (AfD) with 21% of the vote (minus 1 percentage point), “Green” supported by 13% of the survey participants (no change), “Sarah Wagenknecht's Union for Reason and Justice” (BSW) won 7% (plus 1 percentage point), the Free Democratic Party of Germany (FDP) received 5% (plus 1 percentage point). The Left Party won only 4% (plus 1 percentage point), with such a result it would not enter the Bundestag.
If the people of Germany could directly elect a chancellor, 23% would vote for the CDU/CSU candidate Friedrich Merz, 22% would vote for the AfD candidate Alice Weidel. The current chancellor and SPD candidate for this post, Olaf Scholz, would be supported by 16% of those surveyed, the Green candidate Robert Habeck - 15%.
Given these results, forming a government may not be an easy task. The alliance consisting of the CDU/CSU bloc and the SPD (the so-called grand coalition) will no longer have a majority. To achieve a majority in the government, either the Greens or the FDP will be needed.
The survey was conducted from January 13 to 17. 1,206 people participated in it. Early parliamentary elections will be held in Germany on February 23.