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Trump to seek peace in Ukraine by attacking Russia's oil revenues

The United States has demanded that India unload tankers with Russian oil by February 27

Jan 25, 2025 06:22 125

US President Donald Trump has stressed again that attacking Russia's oil revenues is the best way to get Moscow to end its nearly three-year war against Ukraine, the Associated Press reported, quoted by BTA.

Trump, who promised during the election campaign to settle the long-running military conflict as soon as possible, has promoted the idea in the first days of his new mandate that the OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries holds the key to ending hostilities by reducing oil prices.

Yesterday, he again called on the organization, which is headed by Saudi Arabia, to lower the value of black gold. According to the Republican, such an action would deprive Russia of a large part of its state revenue, which it needs to pay for the war, and this would make Vladimir Putin reconsider his desire to continue the conflict.

"There is a way to end it quickly and that is for OPEC to stop making so much money", Trump told reporters. "So the ball is in OPEC's court and they have to lower the price of oil. And then this war will be over in a flash."

But forcing OPEC countries to decide on such action is a difficult task, industry experts believe. Last month, the cartel postponed raising output (which would automatically lower prices - ed. note) in view of lower demand and competitive output from countries that are not part of the organization.

Earlier this week, Trump again made a similar appeal to OPEC during a videoconference address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the annual meeting of world leaders and corporate elites.

Meanwhile, the president's special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said yesterday that if OPEC+ reduces the price of oil to $45 per barrel, it could prompt Russia to end the war.

"Russia makes billions of dollars selling oil," Kellogg said in an interview with "Fox News". "What if the price is reduced to $45 a barrel, which is essentially the breakeven point?"

The Saudi-Russian relationship is complex, although the two countries cooperate on oil.

In 2016, Russia and other oil producers that were not part of the grouping joined Saudi Arabia and the other oil cartel countries to form OPEC+. Russia and Saudi Arabia are the largest producers among the countries in the expanded format. The move to group together was taken largely in response to the drastic decline in oil prices due to American shale production. The United States is not a member of either OPEC or OPEC+.

Patrick De Haan, head of "Petroleum Analysis" at GasBuddy, notes that Trump has a better relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto leader, than his predecessor Joe Biden. But the Saudis still have "bills to pay," and the Republican wants a "big favor" from them.

"Oil companies respond to economics, not personal favors," he added.

Yesterday, the Kremlin dismissed the possibility that Russia could be forced to negotiate an end to the war by the United States and its allies through targeted actions in the oil sector.

Washington and its allies have imposed a price ceiling on Russian black gold of $60 a barrel. But Moscow can count on a steady stream of revenue from sales to countries like India and China, which benefit from generous discounts offered by Russia.

The United States has informed India that tankers carrying Russian oil must be unloaded by February 27 because of the latest sanctions imposed on the Russian oil and gas sector.

India's Deputy Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Pankaj Jain told reporters.

“The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Treasury Department has provided a number of clarifications. They have specified that the deadline is February 27,“ the deputy minister was quoted as saying by Reuters. He also noted that the deadline for completing the financial transactions is March 12.

Jain reiterated the Indian government's position that it will continue to buy Russian oil as long as it is sold below the price of $60 per barrel set by Western countries, and without the participation of sanctioned Russian companies and ships.

On January 10, the United States announced the introduction of a large-scale package of sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector. The companies affected were Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegaz, Gazprom LNG Portovaya, Kryogaz-Vysotsk, Novatek, as well as 183 tankers, traders, oil service companies, heads of a number of oil companies, representatives of the leadership of the Ministry of Energy of Russia.

On January 13, an Indian government source told TASS that the country, following US sanctions against the Russian oil sector, does not expect disruptions in Russian oil supplies in the next two months. He noted that during this time, traders will develop ways to supply oil through new mechanisms.

According to data from the analytical agency Vortexa, cited by OPEC, Russia provided 38% of India's oil imports in November 2024, remaining the largest supplier to the republic.