China will achieve the goal of selling mainly electric cars before the West. Already next year, "battery" cars will occupy more than half of the world's largest market. This is a forecast by UBS, HSBC, Morningstar and Wood Mackenzie, and synthesized information on the subject is provided by the Financial Times.
According to the results of last year, the Chinese bought 12 million electric cars - 20 percent more than in 2023. If the trend continues, China will be able to achieve the "green" goal earlier than Europe and 10 years earlier than planned.
In 2020, the Chinese government set a goal of increasing the market share of electric vehicles to 50 percent by 2035. At the current pace, this milestone will be passed as early as 2025.
And by 2034, sales of "battery" cars in China may reach 18 million units. Demand for fuel cars, on the contrary, will gradually decline and at the same time fall below the three million unit mark, experts predict.
The popularity of hybrids is also growing. In 2025, the volume of PHEV (plug-in hybrids) sold will also set a record, and in 2033 it will exceed six million units. The output of traditional gasoline-electric cars is predicted at a level of 730 thousand to a million per year.
Along with fuel cars, the Chinese market is being lost to foreign brands, as the Chinese increasingly prefer domestic products. In 2024, the share of foreign cars has fallen to just 37 percent, compared to 64 percent in 2020.
However, the rapid growth of electric cars will sooner or later stop: excessive mileage will lead to fierce competition and price wars, analysts are confident. As a result, many brands may disappear.