It is very unlikely that the only section of the "Nord Stream-2" gas pipeline that survived the explosions, defined as a terrorist attack by Moscow, will be launched during the upcoming presidency of Donald Trump, experts quoted by TASS believe.
The construction of "Nord Stream-2" was completed on September 10, 2021. It was originally planned to be completed before the end of 2019, but work was delayed due to US sanctions. Stretching along the bottom of the Baltic Sea from the coast of Russia to Germany, the gas pipeline has a total capacity of 55 billion cubic meters per year. On September 26, 2022 Unprecedented damage was recorded in three sections of the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines. As a result, only one part of Nord Stream 2 remained intact.
„The launch of the surviving part is almost impossible. Donald Trump will continue to promote the interests of producers and exporters of American liquefied gas in Europe, which he openly did during his first term as US president. "Nord Stream" is his main opponent on this route. The political readiness of Germany and the EU as a whole to launch the pipeline is no less doubtful", says Alexey Belogorev, research director at the "Energy and Finance" Foundation.
From a legal point of view, the restart of the "Nord Stream" gas pipeline is much more feasible than it was when it was initially put into operation, but at least 600 million euros will be needed to restore the pipeline, Belogorev added.
Theoretically, the chances of resuming the operation of the "Nord Stream" gas pipeline are or to launch its surviving thread remain, but in reality one can hardly count on this, says the deputy general director of the Institute of National Energy and an expert at the InfoTEK analytical center Alexander Frolov.
According to Alexey Grivach, deputy head of the National Energy Security Fund and an expert from the Valdai Club, there are chances of starting supplies of Russian gas along the intact thread if the geopolitical situation changes.
“As the Russian authorities have repeatedly stated, this thread is technically sound and can be put into operation in a relatively short time, so the ball is in Germany's court“, he said.
Can an American investor buy "Nord Stream-2"?
At the end of November 2024 Reports emerged that American investor Stephen Lynch had expressed a desire to buy Nord Stream 2. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he had not heard of Gazprom's plans to sell Nord Stream 2 to American investors. However, negotiations are currently underway in a Swiss court with creditors of the Swiss operator of the gas pipeline, Nord Stream 2 AG, to restructure its debt. If the parties do not reach an agreement, this will lead to the start of bankruptcy proceedings against the operator of "Nord Stream 2".
Most experts agree that the news about the American investor's entry into the project looks like his personal PR and free self-promotion.
There is no reasonable intention or meaning behind such a purchase, because Russia does not recognize the bankruptcy of Nord Stream 2 AG, says Belogorev.
“So far, this infrastructure is not for sale. However, some movements are really being made around it. This is evidenced by the repeated introduction of sanctions by the United States against the project, its previous management, the ships and companies involved in its construction,“ notes Grivach.
In turn, Maria Belova, head of the research department at Implementa, emphasizes that in the event of the liquidation of the operator company, all its property and liabilities will be put up for sale. In this case, there is a "not quite zero probability" of an American investor becoming the owner of the gas pipeline in the future.
"In the event of a change of owner, there is a high probability of both the lifting of sanctions and certification of the pipe, and the possibility of using the surviving one at full capacity. The question that remains open is whether Gazprom is ready to sell it and deliver its gas along this route under the conditions set by the Americans," concluded Belova.