Global core inflation will fall to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. This forecast is contained in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) update of the World Economic Outlook published in January.
As the fund's specialists emphasize, “inflation in advanced economies will return to the target level sooner than in emerging market and developing countries”.
The report also notes that “policy-induced interruptions to the ongoing disinflation process could interrupt the transition to monetary policy easing, with implications for fiscal sustainability and financial stability“. “Global disinflation continues, but there are signs that progress is stalling in some countries, and in some cases, elevated inflation continues. In recent months, global average core inflation has slightly exceeded 2%,“ the report said.
According to experts, “hotbeds of elevated inflation remain in some emerging market and developing economies in Europe and Latin America“. “Key central bank monetary policy rates are expected to continue to decline, albeit at different rates, reflecting differences in growth and inflation expectations,“ the fund said. At the same time, the authors of the report are confident that global inflation rates will continue to decline.