The door is open for the euro from January 1, 2026. This is the conclusion of the Institute for Market Economics after yesterday's inflation data for December, released by Eurostat, quoted by the Bulgarian National Radio. The newly formed government also made membership in the eurozone a top priority for its governance.
As of December 2024 The average annual inflation in Bulgaria is 2.6%, while in the three countries with the lowest inflation in the European Union it is 0.9% in Lithuania, 1.0% in Finland and 1.1% in Italy, it is clear from the Eurostat data, on which the analysis of Petar Ganev from IME is based.
According to the Maastricht Treaty, the criterion takes the average of the three countries with the lowest (by definition the “best”) inflation – in this case this is exactly 1.0%, and adds 1.5 points. Thus, the criterion is 2.5%, i.e. Bulgaria's deviation is 0.1%.
"In this sense, as of December 2024, the criterion is not fulfilled in its pure form. Often, when the criterion is calculated by the European Commission and the European Central Bank, one of the countries with the lowest inflation is excluded from the calculation, as it deviates significantly (downwards) from inflation in other EU countries. If this is applied only to the last Lithuania (0.9%), then it is replaced by Denmark or Ireland (both with 1.3%) and the criterion is raised to 2.6 (1.1+1.5) and then Bulgaria already meets the criterion", comments Ganev.
Finance Minister Temenuzhka Petkova commented upon entering the ministry that Bulgaria has a chance for the eurozone and "it should not be missed", and the former head of the institution Lyudmila Petkova, who remains in the team as deputy minister, announced that she expects requests for extraordinary convergence reports from Brussels and Frankfurt to be submitted by the end of January.
There is a decision of the parliament by which the country is obliged to submit a request for extraordinary assessments within two weeks after the formal fulfillment of all criteria for membership in the eurozone. The realistic date for membership in the club of countries with a single European currency is January 1, 2026.