Conflicts like the one in Ukraine will become more frequent if there is no longer a world hegemon like the USA, which is determined to maintain world order, believes military expert Franz-Stefan Gadi, who also makes other predictions about the war in Ukraine.
"From a military point of view, the situation on the front in Ukraine is not catastrophic. But there are many negative trends that indicate that Kiev will suffer more territorial losses in the near future," military expert Franz-Stefan Gadi, who recently returned from Ukraine, told ARD.
Ukraine can hold its own this winter as well. But for how long?
Gadi, who is an analyst and military consultant at the Institute for International Studies in London and the Center for a New American Security in Washington, says Ukraine's biggest problem remains its lack of military personnel – especially of foot soldiers.
Despite the latest wave of mobilizations, there are not enough soldiers at the front, and the brigades cannot be replaced with fresh forces. “Russian forces are attacking on five main axes, and in the near future a sixth axis may be added near Zaporozhye. The priority here should be the stabilization of the front with additional human resources”, the expert tells Eckart Aretz from ARD.
However, he predicted that Ukraine would hold its ground this winter if the intensity of Russian attacks did not increase dramatically. “I do not expect a decisive breakthrough by the Russian army, including because it itself has extremely high losses,“, Gadi says and claims that Ukraine has managed to replace the lack of personnel with drones and artillery and is now in a better position overall than in summer. “Then the question is: Will Ukraine survive the coming winter?“
"Without the US, it is impossible to maintain the current level of military support"
Regarding the promises of the newly elected US President Donald Trump to limit aid to Ukraine, Gadi commented: “We must be aware that Europe can only partially compensate for the lack of US military aid. Without the US, it will be almost impossible to maintain the current level of military support”. According to him, Europe must drastically increase its capacity and it is necessary for Germany to demonstrate leadership in this direction: “It is possible to provide Ukraine with better support in the medium and long term”, the expert is convinced.
Trump's Vice President - JD Vance - talks about freezing the conflict and neutral status for Ukraine, and Franz-Stefan Gadi sees several problems with this idea: “In 2014, when the Russian attack began, Ukraine was de facto neutral . This did not protect it from Russian military aggression. In addition, neutral status requires corresponding guarantees. However, I do not believe that the United States will be ready to act as a guarantor to ensure the neutrality of Ukraine, monitor the cease-fire line and, if necessary, directly intervene in the military conflict on the side of Ukraine”, he commented. If Ukraine is forced to sign such an agreement without guarantees and without membership in the EU and NATO, it is very likely that another war will result, Franz-Stefan Gadi is convinced.
"Such conflicts will become more frequent"
Gadi makes another important prediction. According to him, we are in a period of subsequent wars, and such conflicts will become more frequent if there is no longer a world hegemon like the United States, which is determined to maintain world order. The expert, who has written a book on the subject, recalls the Franco-German wars and how the First and Second World Wars were largely a result of them.
To be able to defend Europe, Germany needs to seriously increase its military capacity, but it is still acting on a reflex from the Cold War, when it was under the protective umbrella of the United States. “From a military point of view, it is imperative that Germany increase the capacity of its armed forces in order to deter future conflicts, especially on NATO's eastern flank. Up to 300,000 reservists are needed to expand the ground forces. The only way to achieve this is through a new type of military service, Gadi believes.
"The stakes are high"
According to him, it has never been clearly explained to the societies why the sovereignty of Ukraine is an integral part of the security structure in Europe and this is a big political and communication failure. “We must stop the isolationist thinking that sees Russia as the only problem. We are talking about an axis - about China, North Korea, Iran and other countries,”, says Gadi. “The shake-up of the global liberal world order has a direct impact on our prosperity and there is no other alternative but closer unification of the West. The other would mean much greater influence from Russia and countries hostile to Western values. The stake is high“, the expert sums up.