A former Manchester City footballer was appointed president of Georgia on Saturday by the newly elected, but not recognized by the opposition, parliament in Tbilisi after 17 days of pro-European protests that swept through cities and towns in the Caucasus country. 53-year-old Mikhail Kavelashvili is a former MP from the increasingly authoritarian ruling Georgian Dream party and was the only candidate for the post, the BBC summarizes events in the former Soviet republic.
Yesterday, 224 of the 225 (out of a total of 300) members of Georgia's electoral college voted for him. The four main opposition groups did not participate in the vote, rejected Kavelashvili and boycotted parliament, insisting that the October elections were rigged. Despite sub-zero temperatures, large groups of protesters gathered outside parliament from early morning on voting day.
Georgia's current pro-Western president, Salome Zurabishvili, described Kavelashvili's election as a travesty and said she represented the only remaining legitimate institution in Georgia. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze accused Zurabishvili of trying to harm Georgia's interests, stressing that when her term ends on December 29, she will have to retire.
“We have very strong state institutions, so we certainly have no difficulty in bringing the situation under full control,“ the prime minister was quoted as saying on Friday. His party colleague Nino Tsilhchino told journalists that Zurabishvili was no longer president in the public eye.
The protests against the “Georgian Dream“ began immediately after the October elections, but escalated on November 28, when the government announced that it was suspending EU accession negotiations until 2028.
The overwhelming majority of Georgians support the country's path to the European Union, and membership in the community is enshrined in the constitution.
The night before the vote, the capital Tbilisi was rocked by spontaneous protests involving IT specialists, public sector employees, artists, actors and lawyers. "We are standing here to establish a state of law once and for all, to respect the provisions of the constitution and human rights," 47-year-old lawyer David Kikaleishvili told the BBC.
In 2022, President-elect Kavelashvili created a faction promoting anti-Western themes, which officially separated from the "Georgian Dream", although it is still considered to be under its control. The political movement "People's Power" is known for being the main voice of anti-Western propaganda in Georgia. Kavelashvili accuses opposition parties of acting as a "fifth column" directed from abroad and describes President Zurabishvili as a "chief (foreign) agent". The former football striker entered politics after being disqualified and unable to run for the head of the Georgian Football Federation because he did not meet the conditions.
Although his movement participated together with “Georgian Dream“ in the October elections, it has now decided to act in parliament as a “healthy opposition“ to take the place of “the so-called radical opposition financed by foreign forces“.
“People's Power” MP Guram Macharashvili, who announced on December 13 that his faction would leave the ruling parliamentary majority, told the BBC that what is happening in the country is “an artificially created crisis characterized by the influence of foreign forces”. Macharashvili and Kavelashvili are the architects of Georgia's controversial "foreign agents" law, described by the country's opposition as a Russian-style law.
When asked what a "healthy opposition" means, Macharashvili said: "Opposition does not necessarily mean opposition on all issues, it does not mean only cooperation with foreigners. It means competing with the ruling party to make better proposals for the best future of Georgia."
“Georgian Dream“, founded by billionaire businessman and former Georgian prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, has been accused of bringing the country back into Russia's sphere of influence, the BBC notes.
“There is systematic torture, inhuman and degrading treatment of citizens“ (during the protests), said former human rights activist Nino Lomzhariya. Theatergoers who joined the protests on Friday chanted: “Police are everywhere, justice is nowhere!“.
Meanwhile, the mayor of Tbilisi postponed the lighting of the Christmas tree in the capital amid fears that protesters who gathered in the city would resort to violence after an electoral college appointed Kavelashvili as president. Mayor Kakha Kaladze announced the postponement of a briefing at the government administration building minutes before the event began, the Georgian service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
About an hour earlier, hundreds of police officers were deployed in the area and festive lights were turned on on the facade of the parliament building, but they were turned off after Kaladze announced the postponement of the lighting of the Christmas tree lights yesterday.
This came as demonstrators gathered in Tbilisi for the 17th consecutive day to protest the parliamentary elections held on October 26, which the country's current president and the opposition have refused to recognize as free and fair and said were manipulated.
On December 13, Zurabishvili told a press conference that the election of a new president "will be an unconstitutional event, completely devoid of legitimacy." Zurabishvili, 72, has previously alleged that the October elections were rigged with the help of Russia.
The political crisis erupted after the Georgian Dream party claimed victory in the elections and intensified after the government decided to postpone Georgia's accession talks with the European Union.
The authorities have responded violently to the large demonstrations, arresting hundreds of people in the past two weeks and closely monitoring protesters with Chinese-made surveillance cameras with facial recognition capabilities, RFE/RL reports.
The protesters gathered early yesterday morning near the Georgian Philharmonic Concert Hall and marched to the parliament building. Zurabishvili made a brief appearance on Rustaveli Boulevard, but told the assembled journalists only: "I have said everything, now I'm getting down to business." The protesters chanted “Salome! Salome!“ and displayed their university diplomas, chanting “Show your diploma to Kavelashvili!“, who is said to have no higher education.
The demonstrators also mockingly held up “red cards” to former football player Kavelashvili.
Michael Roth, chairman of the German Bundestag's foreign affairs committee, wrote in “Ex“ that Kavelashvili's “election“is another step towards the Gleichschaltung (“alignment“) of all constitutional institutions in Georgia“. “Gleichschaltung“ is a word used by the Nazis to describe their consolidation of power in Germany, RFE/RL reports.
Roth added that Kavelashvili's election "deepens the division of Georgia," while Zurabishvili remains the country's legitimate president.
After the announcement that Kavelashvili had been elected, Georgian Prime Minister Kobakhidze congratulated him and said his election would mark a turning point for the country.
“For more than 20 years, Georgia has not had a patriotic, morally and psychologically balanced person as president,“ Kobakhidze stressed in a statement.
Kavelashvili's victory "will significantly contribute to strengthening Georgia's statehood and our sovereignty, as well as to reducing radicalism and so-called polarization," the prime minister predicted.
Kobahidze called the opposition "radical" and said that the protests during the election process were weak.
He also mentioned the dramatic pro-European protests in Ukraine in 2014 on the Maidan in Kiev, which succeeded in overthrowing the country's pro-Russian president. "In Georgia, the "Maidan" failed and will never succeed," Kobakhidze vowed.
The installation of Kavelashvili - who has no higher education and is anti-Western despite his football career in the West - as president "was a farce," wrote Lithuanian MEP Rasa Jukneviciene in "Ex". She visited Georgia on Thursday with a delegation from the European Parliament. “Just like in Russia, Belarus and other autocracies“, Yuknevichene described the situation, quoted by the publication “Politico“.
The British newspaper “The Guardian“ draws attention to what Zurabishvili wrote on social networks in the midst of the electoral college vote: “Georgia never loses its sense of humor, celebrating the election of a football player as president“. She shared a video of protesters playing football in the snow - an obvious mockery of Kavelashvili.
Given that Zurabishvili refuses to leave office, opposition MPs are boycotting parliament, and the protests show no signs of abating, Kavelashvili's presidential mandate is likely to be undermined from the start, predicts “The Guardian“.
Vakhtang Khmaladze, one of the authors of Georgia's constitution, claims that all decisions of the new parliament are invalid. This is because the legislature ratified the mandates of the newly elected deputies before a ruling was made on a court case filed by incumbent President Zurabishvili to challenge the elections, the constitutionalist explained. “Georgia is facing an unprecedented constitutional crisis“, Khmaladze said. It remains unclear how the government will respond to Zurabishvili's refusal to step down after her successor takes office on December 29.
In other news, international condemnation of the police crackdown is growing, and the French president told Georgians that their “European dream must not be extinguished“. “We are with you in support of your European and democratic aspirations“, Emmanuel Macron assured in a video message. Earlier this week, Macron called the founder of the “Georgian Dream“ Bidzina Ivanishvili – the tycoon considered the real strongman in Georgia. His decision to call Ivanishvili, instead of Prime Minister Kobakhidze, is indicative of the fact that the West does not recognize the legitimacy of the new “Georgian Dream“ government, commented “The Guardian“.
At the same time, on December 13, TASS quoted Gulbaat Rtskhiladze – Doctor of Political Science from Tbilisi University, who, at an international conference “The Rise of Neo-Fascism and the Future of Europe“ in Athens, stated that in Georgia fascism takes the form of political Russophobia, which is supported and financed by the European Union and the United States. According to the scientist, “there is also a curious LGBT fascism in Georgia“, TASS quoted him.
As early as December 9, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said, quoted by TASS, that the pragmatic policy of the Georgian leadership, aimed at protecting national interests, “literally brings heartburn“ to the rulers in Washington and Brussels and in the overwhelming majority of Western countries, and that the West's attacks on Tbilisi will probably continue.
On December 6, “Foreign Policy“ magazine published Luke Coffey's analysis “Four Scenarios for the Future of Protests in Georgia“. In it, the analyst from the Washington think tank “Hudson“ Institute first emphasizes that, amid the escalating clashes, Georgia appears to be in a pre-revolutionary situation.
Coffey writes that while this wave of demonstrations is only entering its second week, the discontent that underlies them has been simmering for years. The situation is evolving rapidly, making it difficult to predict the next steps. Western policymakers should be aware of four potential scenarios as they consider the circumstances to formulate their response, the author notes.
Compromise scenario: Given enough internal and external pressure, the “Georgian Dream“ government may decide to back down on some of its particularly controversial decisions. The oligarch Ivanishvili, who is considered the de facto leader of “Georgian Dream“, may decide that he and his allies have gone too far too fast and take steps to de-escalate. This could include small concessions, such as reversing the decision to suspend Georgia’s EU accession or repealing the law on foreign agents. A more significant compromise would be an agreement on new parliamentary elections.
But with each passing day, the possibility of a compromise that satisfies the people’s demands is growing more remote, the author of Foreign Policy“ believes. The disputes with the protesters now go beyond specific grievances, such as Russian law or election fraud. Many Georgians now see the confrontation between the demonstrators and the government as a reflection of a civilizational choice between returning to the “Russian world“ or deepening integration with Europe and the West. The fact that the disputes have reached this point suggests that even compromise on specific issues will not stop the struggle for Georgia’s future identity.
Belarusian scenario: Georgia could also experience a variant of what happened in Belarus after the rigged presidential elections in August 2020, when weeks of protests were followed by a brutal crackdown carried out by a Russian-backed police state. In this case, Ivanishvili and his “Georgian Dream” associates could refuse any compromise, relying on Moscow to implement authoritarian repression to consolidate their power. This would involve using all state resources to swiftly crush civil society, political opposition, and independent media. Moscow’s support could take the form of assistance from Russian security services, similar to how the Kremlin helped the Belarusian regime.
If there is an increased presence of security forces in unmarked uniforms on Georgian streets, they are likely to be Russian. The Kremlin could provide Georgian Dream with technical support and advice on how to intensify repression.
A Polish Cold War scenario: When the Polish communist government declared martial law in 1981 to quell a national uprising, it argued that the measures were preventive, to prevent a Soviet invasion to restore order. Similarly, Georgian Dream could instill fear in Georgians to "discipline" them by highlighting the risk of Russian military intervention.
Moscow could heighten fears of its own intervention with military provocations in the Russian-occupied Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Meanwhile, “Georgian Dream“ will continue to eliminate the tools of mutual control between the three branches of government (executive, legislative and judicial) while tightening its grip on all power.
Fireworks Revolution: The fourth and most dramatic scenario is a revolution that can be named after the fireworks that became emblematic during the anti-government demonstrations. If public pressure continues to mount, international pressure continues to grow, and government repression becomes increasingly brutal, Georgian society could reach a turning point, believes Luke Coffey. According to him, a key turning point could be the transition of representatives of the country's police and security forces to the protesters and a shift in the balance of power. If this happens, Ivanishvili and his inner circle may have to flee the country.
The revolution itself could take two paths. One would be to appoint an interim government, potentially headed by Zurabishvili, while Georgia prepares for new elections in the spring, similar to the situation in Ukraine in 2014 after the Maidan revolution.
The other possible path could be the outbreak of a chaotic power struggle, something like a repeat of Georgia's turbulent period after independence in the 1990s, explains the analysis of “Foreign Policy“. This option could make the country vulnerable to prolonged instability and violence. Whichever path is taken in this scenario, the possibility of Russian military intervention increases. Russian President Vladimir Putin may decide to forcefully keep Georgia in the “Russian Vyatka”, as he has done before, predicts Luke Coffey. This was the case in Belarus in 2020 and in 2022. in Kazakhstan.
Given this pattern, it is increasingly likely that Moscow will intervene in a similar way in Georgia.
What is happening in Georgia today is part of a broader geopolitical struggle between Europe and Russia, the analyst of „Foreign Policy“ believes. The sooner leading politicians in the West realize this, the sooner they will be able to develop an effective policy to oppose Russia.
After the October parliamentary elections in the Caucasian country, the „Guardian“ published the headline: "In Georgia, Russia has achieved another victory against liberal democracy". At the time, journalist Natalia Antelava recounted in her article in the British publication: "After the ruling party "Georgian Dream"… secured a parliamentary majority in the elections, Moscow was jubilant. "The Georgians won. Bravo!", wrote on the social network "Ex" editor-in-chief of the Russian state television RT Margarita Simonyan. Meanwhile, a heartbroken friend of mine… wrote to me that people feel as if they have "woke up in Russia".
"In the case of Georgia, the biggest winner is the Kremlin, which has just won a battle in its global war against liberal democracy. The opposition in Georgia is unlikely to succeed unless it receives focused attention from Europe and the United States. But against the backdrop of the tragedy that has engulfed the Middle East, the drama of the US elections and the urgency of the increasingly unsustainable war in Ukraine, the events in Georgia will have a hard time keeping up with the competition for attention," concludes "The Guardian".