During his election campaign, Donald Trump said that if he were re-elected as president of the United States (as he was), he would end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours“. The Republican did not say how he intended to do this. However, Trump realized how unrealistic such a statement was, and he himself, as well as people from his future administration, are already talking about an end to the war in at least a few months.
On January 20, Trump will take office as president of the United States. The team of the newly elected US president has admitted that it is impossible to end Russia's war against Ukraine in 24 hours, writes the Ukrainian publication FREEDOM, summarizing the change over the past few days.
The plans of the newly elected US president to end Russia's war against Ukraine in 24 hours have changed. Now he is also preparing a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but there are still no signals from Moscow that Putin is ready to negotiate.
There are still no signals from Russia that Putin is ready to meet with Trump, and in many respects this future meeting will depend on the wishes of the Kremlin. Yevgeny Kostogryzov, an analyst at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism“, said that Donald Trump has begun to assess his prospects more realistically. The Republican has already understood that he cannot stop a full-scale war in one day, which will soon be three years old.
„Perhaps the Russian Federation itself still does not understand whether it wants a meeting between Putin and Trump or not“, said Kostogryzov.
The American publication The Atlantic wrote in its article at the beginning of this year that Putin, in his own understanding, is winning this war and time is on his side. From his point of view, it makes no sense for him to sit down to negotiate with Washington and Kiev right now. If Trump does not increase military aid to Ukraine, the country will lose the war in 12 months in a catastrophic way.
And at the moment there are no indications that Trump is ready to increase military and economic aid to Ukraine. On the contrary – from his statements it is clear that he plans to limit or stop it completely.
Yaroslav Bozhko, head of the Center for Political Studies “Doctrina“, said that the United States now has no real levers of influence over Russia. Trump's statement about his intention to end the war in 24 hours initially seemed unrealistic. The United States does not have any effective levers of influence over Russia. These levers are extremely limited to force Russia to abandon its aggressive plans.
The newly elected president understands that Russia will try to negotiate the terms of ending the war on its own. Russia has been building a policy for years that would allow it to avoid the possible risks associated with American pressure. The United States simply cannot pressure Russia so easily in the current situation. Moscow has redirected trade flows to Asia, and now the United States has no tools to put pressure on the Russian Federation, except to continue supporting the armed forces of Ukraine, Bozhko believes.
For Trump, ending the war remains a key task. He aims to start his presidency with a geopolitical victory that will strengthen the United States' position in the world. However, the risks of failure are great. Trump has already begun communication with the president of China, realizing the importance of such talks.
Trump, as an experienced negotiator, understands that in a dialogue with Russia it is necessary not only to demand, but also to offer. It is not clear what exactly he can offer. This is what is feared in Ukraine the most: how much Ukrainian blood and land Trump is ready to sacrifice in order to then announce to the world that he is the peacemaker.