Every hour, the news gives us reason to rejoice at another step in the rapprochement between Washington and Moscow. By decree of Putin, Alexander Darchiev has finally been appointed as the new ambassador of Russia to the USA. NBC reports on the plans of the Trump administration to start sharing confidential data with Russia (immediately after the cessation of intelligence sharing with Ukraine, which even the British Storm Shadow blocked).
What is happening?
Let's start with the obvious. The negotiations, which began last year and are currently ongoing, have already led to significant progress in bilateral relations.
Both sides show maximum satisfaction with the progress of the negotiations. Both sides are extremely pleased with the progress made in the negotiations, both after the Riyadh meeting and the Istanbul round, and after other consultations unknown to the public.
For the first time, the international community was alerted on February 12, when Donald Trump had a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin. Rumors that such calls had occurred before are actually just rumors based on misinterpreted statements by the new US president, which the Kremlin decided to "mockery" rather than refute through Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov.
Soon after that - on Valentine's Day, a romantic (probably because both sides tried to hide it) telephone conversation took place between the presidential aide for foreign policy Yuri Ushakov and US National Security Advisor M. Waltz. However, pragmatic issues were discussed: the purchase of 150 Boeing aircraft (one of the most painful issues for Russia, where every flight is now a game of Russian roulette), cooperation in space and energy, the Arctic, which is very interesting for both countries (as, incidentally, for China), and, of course, Ukraine.
In their first real conversation, the two presidents agreed to hold talks in Saudi Arabia, a country acceptable to both sides. And Donald Trump immediately behaved like a skillful businessman, emphasizing the interest of American companies, including ExxonMobil, to regain their positions in the Russian market. Putin easily picked up the business side of the conversation, mocking when he mentioned Russia's interest in returning to the dollar system.
On February 17-18, a “historic” meeting was held in Riyadh. In fact, these were two separate meetings: one on Ukraine and one on the normalization of bilateral relations. On the American side: Secretary of State M. Rubio, National Security Advisor M. Waltz and Special Representative for the Middle East S. Witkoff. For some reason, Special Representative for Ukraine K. Kellogg was not present.
The Russians were represented by Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, Minister Sergei Lavrov and the current Special Representative for Sanctions Removal, Head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund hedge fund Konstantin Dmitriev (a counterparty acceptable to the Americans and a long-time acquaintance and business partner of Witkoff). The future Ambassador A. Darchiev was also not included.
Nevertheless, the Russians understood that the Trump administration needed to demonstrate progress after the meeting in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, they could firmly reject the possibility of discussing a ceasefire (Lavrov himself openly stated in an interview that “a ceasefire is a path to nowhere, we need final legal agreements“) and instead demand that Russia retain control over the territories already seized and written into the Russian constitution, begin the process of lifting sanctions against it, and restore Russia's access to world markets.
In fact, this is fully consistent with the logic of the demands that, as Nowiny Polskie notes, the Kremlin has made to the West. These are: a rapid reshuffle of the government (starting with the President of Ukraine), the West's refusal to support Ukraine with further demilitarization of the country and depriving it of the opportunity to give an adequate response to new aggression.
And what in return?
First, the tempting (since Kissinger's time) traditional and a priori unfulfillable promise to break with China (or at least to reduce the level of cooperation).
Second, the insidious offer of a concession for the extraction of minerals (those coveted rare earth elements) in the occupied territories of Ukraine. It is clear that no one in Moscow wants to share resources. However, for Russia, it is important that the United States agrees in principle to discuss this issue, thereby legitimizing the Kremlin's sovereignty over the “new territories“.
There are many examples of projects for joint Russian-American work. There are already attempts to propose joint development of the Shevchenko lithium ore deposit in the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk region of Ukraine (estimated reserves: ore - 14 million tons, lithium oxide - 500,000 tons). In the future, such cooperation may develop into joint work in other regions of the world, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and potentially in Greenland.
It is possible to promise not to resume gas supplies to Europe. In general, the topic of energy can also be raised, relying on the business prospects of our American colleagues. This is a win-win situation, because it is no secret that without Western investments and technologies, the Russian energy industry is in decline.
As one of the possible options, the US administration is pushing the idea of creating a single operating company that would manage the entire gas transportation infrastructure of Gazprom. It is proposed to attract Western giants such as BP, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell and Blackrock as investors in this operating company.
But let's get back to the negotiations themselves. In Riyadh, first of all, they "agreed to negotiate further". To create strategic groups in various areas of cooperation, to resume diplomatic contacts and to prepare economic agreements.
In fact, the Riyadh summit clearly outlined two Russian-American negotiating lines: political (which should one day end with a meeting between the two leaders) and purely commercial. Russian oligarchs and American businessmen are actively involved in the second track. But it's not just businessmen - both the US State Department and the US Department of Commerce are currently working on the prospects for the return of American business to Russia (with an emphasis on energy, mineral resources and the financial sector).
In addition, the Russians are trying very hard to find new topics on which the Trump administration would be interested in developing cooperation. For example, the fight against drugs. Today, the representative of the Russian Interior Ministry in the United States, A. Gusev, is trying hard to demonstrate the relevant capabilities to the Department of Justice and Homeland Security, the FBI and the Drug Enforcement Administration.
A little more than a week later, on February 27, a new round of consultations was held in Istanbul, this time exclusively through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as a continuation of the Saudi agreements. The delegation of Russian diplomats is headed by the "almost ambassador" Darchiev. The American delegation was led by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Sonata Coulter.
The low level of officials is due to the technical nature of the issues discussed. First of all, the restoration of a full-fledged “pre-war” diplomatic presence (issuing an agriman to Ambassador Darchiev, restoring financial services to diplomatic missions, hiring local people to work in them, etc.) As they say, “consultations to eliminate minor irritants”.
At the same time, the meeting in Istanbul was supposed to prepare the Rubio-Lavrov meeting of the heads of departments. It is expected that it will be held again in Baku or Istanbul in the coming days of March.
It is clear where this is going. Of course, the Kremlin wants to build on its success. It wants to show its own population that it is restoring its superpower status when one of the American officials, preferably Trump, takes a place of honor among the spectators at the 80th anniversary of the Victory Parade on Red Square.
But in terms of "real politics", the Kremlin, although it continues consultations at various levels, is still betting on a Putin-Trump meeting. It is counting on the fact that "personal chemistry matters". And the Kremlin believes that this meeting will finally provide an opportunity for a businesslike division of the world into zones of influence. And Putin may even sign a treaty with a secret additional protocol, like the one signed on August 23, 1939 by the foreign ministers of the Third Reich and the USSR.
Thus, the issue of European security remains a problem for Europe itself. Neither Russia nor the United States take its interests and voice into account, and the issue of Ukraine is just a bargaining chip.