"I notice the price increase in stores. This trend is not new. Despite the data released last week on inflation in Bulgaria, which show that it is currently low - 2.2%, we must note that this is the change in the price level compared to December 2023. The entire accumulation of high inflation in previous years remains. That is, even if we have such a relatively low number compared to 2022 and 2023, the increase in prices since then remains. That is, there is an accumulation over time, which is visible to everyone when they go to the store". This was commented on by economic expert Stoyan Panchev on Nova TV.
According to him, inflation is measured with an index in which different parts of the consumer basket have different weights. "Of course, food has a lot of weight, because it is obviously a major part of our consumption. This is also one of the ways to see how developed a country is. When a smaller part of the consumer basket is food, it means you are in a more developed country. Bulgaria, unfortunately - we are not a rich country, because one third of the consumer basket is food", he emphasized.
On the issue of whether we will be able to meet the inflation criterion and enter the eurozone, he pointed out that "this will depend on the European Commission and especially on the ECB". "Currently, we are not formally meeting the criterion by 0.14% points. There have been cases in which, in the event of such failure, they have changed some of the countries that are reference, that is, against which inflation is calculated. There have been cases where even with a smaller margin, countries have waited years to enter the eurozone".
And he added: "In my opinion, the situation is more unpleasant from the point of view of the criteria - especially with inflation. Because it will most likely start to rise in Bulgaria with the January data. We have seen large jumps in food prices, a jump in the price of electricity, heating, telecommunications services - the trend in Bulgarian inflation is not to fall, but to rise in the coming months. It is entirely possible that this hole of 0.14% will increase. Even if we submit a request for an extraordinary convergence report now, we will be given a period of observation, which will be several months ahead. Given the trends we see at this stage, if we say that this period in March 25 compared to March 24, we will almost certainly go beyond the criterion. That is, the trends are not positive for us. And the documents themselves for entering the eurozone say sustainable fulfillment of the criterion, and not in a specific month. Our inflation is rather far from fulfillment. I think that by technical criteria in the next 2-3 years we will not be able to enter the eurozone".