Thousands of mayors and municipal councilors will be elected in Turkey today, but all eyes are on Istanbul. If Erdogan's party takes back the metropolis, it will finally cement his power, experts say.
63 million people have the right to vote in Turkey and today they can elect mayors of 81 cities. The election is historic above all for one man - President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has said it will be his last before handing over power to the next generation. Although there are doubts whether this will actually happen, one thing is clear - he is determined to regain power in his native Istanbul.
The battle for Istanbul is in the spotlight
Thousands of mayors and municipal councilors will be elected all over Turkey, but all eyes are on one vote - this one in Istanbul.
The vote there is particularly important for Erdogan. His political career began in the Turkish metropolis, where he was elected mayor in 1994. Later he himself said "Whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey".
But it was in Istanbul that his Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered a loss in the 2019 local elections. The united opposition then registered a historic victory after decades of AKP dominance. The rulers lost not only Istanbul, but a total of 11 cities, including the capital Ankara.
The opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu from the Republican People's Party (RPP), who is fighting for a second term, deserves special credit for the victory in the largest Turkish city. If he manages to win it, he has a strong chance of being nominated for the presidency in the 2028 elections, say political scientists.
Erdogan can finally cement his power
It is also not entirely certain whether Erdogan will actually step down before the next elections. Although the Turkish constitution forces him to do so after four years because he has reached the limit of his mandates, there are already voices among his close associates to change the basic law. Because Erdogan could not "leave the Turkish nation alone", as his coalition partner Devlet Bahceli, leader of the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party, stated.
Erdoğan became actively involved in the campaign to try to tip the scales in his hometown. "What state was Istanbul in when you elected me mayor," he asked at a pre-election event. "Garbage, holes, mud. This is RNP! And what changed after Imamoglu took office? Rubbish, a-holes and half-assed again, that's what he did!" Imamoglu's answer was not long in coming: "In five years we did more than they did in 25 years. They dealt with luxury apartments, built them for friends and relatives."
Who will prevail in this fight is not clear. According to data from the polling agency ORC, the difference between Ekrem Imamoglu and AKP candidate Murat Kurum is only 1.2 percent. After Erdogan's victory in the presidential election last year, the opposition now appears fragmented again. The match between Imamoglu and Kurum is of key importance because Istanbul is home to a fifth of Turkey's population, and half of the country's imports and exports pass through the city. And if Erdogan manages to prevail, it will cement his power for years to come, experts are convinced.