Armed conflict between Israel and Iran seems entirely possible . How well prepared is Israel for such a confrontation? And how strong is the Iranian army? What direct comparisons show.
If there is an armed conflict between Israel and Iran, some factors that are difficult to predict will be relevant. For example, how many of Iran's allies (meaning not entire countries, but individual groups and structures) will join the conflict. The most important supporter among them is the Iranian-funded Hezbollah organization in Lebanon. The Houthis in Yemen and some Shiite militias in Iraq could also join the armed conflict or be recruited by Iran to provide military support.
For a long time, Israel has been preparing for such a war on several fronts, says Aryeh Sharuz Shalikar - one of the Israeli army's spokespersons. Attention is mainly directed to three aspects: first, to the expansion of air defense systems such as "Iron Dome", "Patriot", "David's Sling"; and "Arrow". Second – to developing offensive abilities: "In the event of an attack, you cannot rely only on defense, but you must immediately undertake a counterattack. It is not by chance that we say that attack is the best defense", Shalikar points out in an interview with DV. And thirdly, Israel is making efforts to build a broad regional and international union.
Approximately equal combat power
In terms of combat power, the differences between the armies of Israel and Iran do not appear to be too great. The 2024 Global Firepower Index ranks Iran 14th in the world and Israel 17th.
The index also makes a direct comparison between the capabilities of the two armed forces. The data shows that Iran surpasses Israel in terms of human resources. The same applies to the number of tanks and military vehicles. However, this is not so important in view of the geographical position of the two countries. Israel and Iran are separated by other countries, such as Iraq and Jordan, and the distance between Jerusalem and Tehran is about 1,850 kilometers.
„The eventual armed conflict will not really take the form of a classic war, but rather an exchange of blows over long distances," said Fabian Hintz, a Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. An armed conflict with Iran would be fought primarily from the air, he adds.
The important role of the Air Force
According to the Global Firepower Index, Israel clearly surpasses Iran in terms of air power: Israel has 241 fighter jets, while Iran has 181. In total, Israel's military has 612 aircraft, while Iran has 551.
More important than their numbers, however, is what these warplanes can do, says Hintz, who says the air force will play a very important, perhaps even decisive, role for Israel in the event of an armed conflict with Iran.
Iranian ballistic missile intercepted by Israel (April 16, 2024) Photo: Tsafrir Abayov/AP/picture alliance
Exactly the opposite applies to the Islamic Republic – because of the sanctions, Iran has hardly been able to renew its fleet, so the air force will not play a significant role for it. However, Iran was able to purchase some aircraft in the 1990s, and now hopes to acquire Russian-made aircraft as well. "But in principle, in Iran they know that they cannot cope with the Israeli Air Force," the expert told DV. That is why Tehran has focused primarily on developing missiles and drones. However, it is doubtful how well they could repel an Israeli air attack. "I don't think it's going to be very successful," Hintz says, adding that Iran doesn't have a serious defense shield.
Absolute protection does not exist
However, the Iranian drone and missile attack showed where Israel needs to make improvements, said Alexander Greenberg, an expert on Iran issues at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security think tank. As for the drones used by Iran, taking them down does not pose a major technical challenge. Even with a machine gun, they can be neutralized, the DV expert points out. However, he adds that this will also depend on the number of drones involved in an attack. Israel should also be able to repel an attack carried out with a large number of drones. In the last such attack, some of the Iranian missiles were shot down by Israel's allies.
The Iranian attack showed that there is no absolutely impenetrable system, says army spokesman Shalikar. "Whether 300 or 3,000 missiles are fired, eventually some of them will always penetrate the protective shield. "Although we intercept most of them, we know we will never be able to take them all down. Therefore, it is even more important to have a functioning civil defense system in place – that is, with an early warning system as well as air raid shelters," the army spokesman said.
The Hezbollah Challenge
Another military challenge for Israel would be if there was a major armed conflict with Hezbollah. Often described as the "blade of Iran", the Hezbollah organization is probably the most heavily armed group in the world, according to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The EU has classified Hezbollah's military wing, which has repeatedly attacked Israel with rockets, as a terrorist organization.
According to various estimates, Hezbollah has between 120,000 and 200,000 missiles, and in the event of a war, Iran would quickly secure additional supplies. Most of this arsenal consists of short-range unguided projectiles. But Hezbollah, meanwhile, also has greater access to long-range missiles. "This means that a large part of Israel's territory will be at risk of Hezbollah attacks in the event of an escalation of the conflict." In addition, the group can also operate from the territory of Syria.
Against rocket attacks from Lebanon, Israel can use its "Iron Dome" system, says Fabian Hinz, adding that these defense systems are always ready for action and generally work extremely well. The main problem in this case is how powerful the attack will be, that is, with how many missiles and drones it will be carried out, the expert adds.