The US Congress has approved an unprecedented amount of financial aid for Ukraine. Will she help Kiev win the war? What changes can be expected on the fronts? DV sought the opinion of military observers.
The new $61 billion US aid package for Ukraine is “unprecedented in scale”, says military observer Mike Martin of King's College London. The aid exceeds the total amount of US aid to Ukraine provided through early 2024: "So far in this war, we have used the term “game changer” without anything substantial coming from it. But now I think this is just such a turning point," he says for DV.
Artillery projectiles and reinforcement of Ukrainian air defense
The British expert suggests that "the majority of these funds will be spent on artillery shells, of which Ukraine is now in dire shortage, as well as on air defense (air defense)”. His colleague from the Royal College, Marina Miron, also believes that a significant part of the funds will be used to strengthen air defenses, and in particular the “Patriot“ systems. In addition – against the background of yet another mobilization in Ukraine – money will be needed for military training, salaries, equipment, etc. The other part of the funds will go to the purchase of ammunition, and in particular artillery shells, adds Miron.
Another important task is the attention of the German reserve colonel Wolfgang Richter: the safe transport of this ammunition to the front. "Ukraine has to organize these internal deliveries on its own," he says, adding that these are very long logistical routes - up to 1,000 kilometers by rail and road, which Russia will most likely try to attack. That is why the protection of logistics supply routes comes to the fore, says o.z. the colonel of the Bundeswehr.
His colleague - o.z. Colonel Ralph Thiele - indicates that it will likely be at least a week before US aid reaches Ukraine. He expects Russia to continue targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure. Thiele described the current situation on the front as “very dangerous”.
Analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War also warned in their latest review on April 21 that the Russian military is likely to step up offensive operations and airstrikes in the next few weeks.
Will the Ukrainians regain the initiative?
Mainly due to a shortage of ammunition, the Ukrainian army lost the initiative on the battlefield in October last year, and due to gaps in air defense, Ukrainian cities began to suffer more damage from Russian airstrikes. Now, with the new American aid, the Ukrainians will no longer be forced to save ammunition for the artillery, as in the past few months, says British expert Mike Martin. In addition, the F-16 fighter jets previously promised to Ukraine are also "on the way", which should drastically change the situation in the sky, he believes, and expresses his confidence that the Ukrainians will be able to stop the Russian advance.
Another serious factor that experts highlight is the inclusion of ATACMS long-range missiles in the US aid package. The Ukrainian army first used these missiles with a range of 160 km in October 2023. Now Ukraine can get this super-powerful weapon in larger quantities and with an increased range.
The aid from the US – doping for the morale of Ukrainians
All this – artillery ammunition, F-16 aircraft, long-range missiles and the strengthening of Ukrainian air defense – could make Russian aviation lose its supremacy in the sky as well, believes the director of the Kyiv-based “New Network for Geopolitical Research” Michael Samus. "This will be a new era, a new stage in this war," he told DV. Samus does not rule out even the Ukrainians launching a new counter-offensive.
And another effect of the approved American aid is being paid attention to by military observers: "This will affect the morale and fighting spirit of the Ukrainians, especially those of them who tried to avoid mobilization," says Marina Miron. Many of them feared that - deprived of resources - they would not be able to oppose the Russians. The new aid could allay that fear and convince naysayers to join the military, she adds.