Slowly but surely, the Russian army is moving deeper into Ukraine - with massive shelling and with many victims. A new Russian offensive is also expected. And among Ukrainians, dissatisfaction with President Zelensky is growing.
"The situation on the front line is dire. I am absolutely dissatisfied with those who are responsible for it. No one helps our boys there," says 19-year-old Margarita from Kiev.
The Russian "meat grinder tactic"
The disappointment is great. In recent days, Russia has been advancing more and more in eastern Ukraine. The advance was slow, carried out with massive fire and with many casualties. "Meat Grinder Tactics" is the sarcastic term used in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian data, more than 1,000 Russian soldiers are currently killed in the attacks every day.
However, this strategy seems to be working, writes ARD. The Russian army managed to conquer new villages in the Donetsk region and forced the Ukrainians to retreat more and more tactically. The commander of the Ukrainian army Oleksandr Sirsky does not hide that the situation is difficult. The situation at the front has worsened, he wrote last weekend in Telegram. According to Sirsky, Russia has amassed a significant advantage in terms of forces and resources and achieved tactical successes.
Don't underestimate Russia
Whether this will allow the Russian army to make a quick breakthrough in eastern Ukraine is another question. Military experts from the American Institute for the Study of War doubt this, ARD points out.
Roman Pogorili, however, warns not to underestimate the Russian army. He is one of the founders of the independent Ukrainian site Deep State Map, which analyzes military developments in detail. "They are moving further and further," he says. Kiev, in turn, claims that the Russians are advancing slowly and that they are being held back by Ukrainian units.
Criticism of Zelensky is increasing
It cannot be hidden that dissatisfaction with what is happening at the front is growing. Journalist and critic of Zelensky, Yury Butusov, accuses the army leadership of downplaying bad news for a long time, lulling people into a false sense of security.
He has information that commanders who report on the actual state of the battlefield are being fired. Therefore, some commanders do not report at all. "There were also very optimistic reports that did not reflect the real situation," he says. It is necessary to clarify what is the reason for this - whether it is due to ignorance, to the fact that subordinates deliberately hide the truth, or they draw wrong conclusions.
Management is responsible for mistakes in strategic planning, Butusov points out. It is a matter of such mistakes that the soldiers are not always able to correct, he specifies and adds that already on the battlefield there is criticism of the leadership of the army and personally of President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is also the supreme commander of the country.
Roman Pogorili does not want to comment on whether the Ukrainian military also makes strategic mistakes. Instead, he prefers to talk about the dire need for weapons and resources. "We see to what extent the enemy is equipped. To stop it we need firepower - we need to be able to shoot down planes and stop Russian fire. The situation is changing, the Russians are advancing more and more", says the co-founder of Deep State Map, quoted by ARD.
Waiting for the promised weapons
Ukraine is increasingly tense, and calls for help from abroad are getting louder. A few days ago, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who visited Kyiv, assured: "We are working hard to meet Ukraine's urgent needs. It is our responsibility to ensure that promises are kept and that weapons and ammunition are delivered as quickly as possible.
In fact, in recent days, more and more countries have declared their readiness to supply even more weapons to Ukraine. On Tuesday, for example, Germany promised to deliver ten more Marder armored personnel carriers. Latvia also announced a new aid package designed to bolster Ukraine's air defenses. News from the front in the last few days shows that there is no time to lose.
"A new large-scale Russian offensive is expected"
On Friday, May 3, Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia intends to expand its offensive and that Kiev and its allies must thwart these plans. According to him, Ukraine is facing a new stage of the war.
Shortly before that, the deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Vadym Skibitsky, said in an interview with The Economist that Kiev expects a large-scale offensive by Russian forces at the front in the coming months. According to his forecasts, the Russian army will go on the offensive in the east as early as May, after which it will begin to gather forces in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. According to him, soon Chasov Yar, one of the main strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donetsk region, will be seriously attacked.
Skibitsky noted that Russia currently has a total of 514,000 ground troops and plans to increase the number of personnel by enlisting reservists. In turn, the Ukrainian army suffers from personnel starvation and a lack of weapons. "It will be weeks before American aid reaches the front lines. "It will hardly be able to match the Russian stockpile of projectiles or provide effective protection against Russian non-technological and destructive guided aerial bombs," says Vadim Skibitsky.
In addition, Kiev expects Moscow to intensify the disinformation campaign inside Ukraine, aimed at undermining Ukrainian mobilization and the political legitimacy of Volodymyr Zelensky, he also points out.
According to Skibitsky, Ukraine will not be able to win the war with the Russian Federation only on the battlefield, even if the Ukrainians manage to push the Russian troops to the borders. "This will not end the war. Such wars can only end with agreements." According to the general, meaningful negotiations will begin only in the second half of 2025, when Russia's military production potential will be significantly reduced due to a shortage of materials and engineers.