Ј.Р. Morgan has a new contender for the "most apoĸalyptic" prize. stock market forecast! This comes courtesy of Peter Bezin, chief global strategist at FSA Networks, who announced in a report shared with MarketWatch at the end of June that he down target for S&P 500 to 3750 - lower than target of J.R. Morgan Global Resears at the end of the year for 4,200 points, the previous day on Wall Street - hit the expectations that Cĸop will enter a sudden and unexpected price. p>
Bezin expects the cuts to start either later this year or at the beginning of 2025. If this happens, S&P 500 could drop by more than 30% from current levels last week, in front of his forecast.
Πpotentially making things worse for the people, Bepezin also expects the economic pain to be quickly repaid. He expects sales in Europe, which is just starting to pick up, to slow down. And China, which is still breaking the ice of the real estate bubble, can also pass it on.
The result is that, in this scenario, the global package will weaken altogether, which will weigh on global stocks.
The price is fixed, Bezin's thesis is based on the idea that the delay in saving the money is ready to start soon - it will cause a change in the economy it's the source, key economical engine.
He pointed to a number of indicators suggesting that the fast pace of employment during the pandemic has dulled the goal to something far less attractive o for the workers. According to the official data on job losses, the number of open positions has decreased significantly, as has the percentage of closed jobs. And the public use of the daily job goals has an even more dramatic fall.
At the same time, the data of the Ministry of Labor indicate that the pace of wage growth is slowing down.
There is a good idea if you have a lot of pazxds in the nacopo of the pans, including the pits ay.
Ho Bezin says this could be just the beginning, as a sudden collapse in national security could mark the beginning of a new path.
Bank balance data already suggests that lower-income Americans appear to have exhausted their savings since the pandemic. As interest rates on credit cards and car loans - already at levels not seen since 2010 - continue to rise, banks can avoid raising standards and for editing, which adds to the pressure, before the citizens die.
As citizens expect to slow down spending, Bezined expects businesses to slow down spending for capital projects.
In Haiti, the data compiled by the FSA, which track the business plans, show that many of them are already preparing to reduce capital expenditures, even in the country venial intelligence and the continuing trends of restoration that Wall Street believes must to cherish this kind of plants.
The ice that piled up the fish predicted by Bepezin, the Federal Reserve probably won't move to close it - at least not yet. The threat of a renewed wave of inflation probably means that the Fed's predecessor, James Pyle, and his colleagues won't stop dating until it's too late pde ĸcno.
And fiscal policy probably won't be of much use either. The budget deficit is now expected to reach 7% of GDP; in 2024, according to official estimates of the Budget Office of the Congress. At the moment, there is a strong need for fiscal discipline, not for increasing deficit spending.
As a result, regardless of who will win in November, the bond market will likely frustrate any attempts to raise the unsecured buildings.
VCA advises clients to reduce equity while increasing their allocation to bonds and stocks this week.
For those who are more tactically inclined, Bezin suggests several options, including shorting bitcoin and betting that bond yields will fall It dragged the American dollar lower against the Japanese yen. Bezos expects the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds to fall to 3%, while his target for the Fed funds rate remains can be reduced to 2%.
To close, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.34% as of Friday, while the funds' target rate was in the range of 5.25% and 5.5%.
For his part, the chief strategist of JR Morgan, Mapo Kolanovich, confirmed the target for the S&R 500, which calls for the index to fall by more than 23% of its current level and until the end of the year.
According to the ЈРМ's annual forecast, published this week, the investment bank expects the American economy to shrink in the first half of 2024 Mr.
The investment bank's bearish scenario for the shares renews the idea that the mega-capitalizations, which led to a large part of the stock market last year, will come to an end raise the bar even higher in order to beat the invetcts and profits and forecasts .
Π the positioning of the investors and the estimates for these names already look stretched, according to Kolanović. This means that at some point the artificial intelligence that holds the guard has to change - and when it does, the S&R 500 has to see a big difference apvane.
American stocks closed on Friday, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq struggled to close out the first half of 2024 on Friday low noise levels. Both indices rose by more than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.3%.