Pokrovsk is the most pivotal point in the war in Ukraine at the moment. More than a third of the attacks of the Russian army are directed in this direction. According to various sources, the Russian soldiers are already about 10 kilometers from the city. Ukraine is threatened with losing an important logistics center for its armed forces. And residents of Pokrovsk and nearby towns are being evacuated.
The Russian army does not stop shelling Pokrovsk
"This is a familiar scenario - Russian artillery starts shelling the outskirts of the city, then they introduce guided bombs and drones into the attack. Cities are quickly becoming ghostly, people are fleeing," explains Oliver Carroll, a correspondent for the British "Economist" who was recently in Pokrovsk. About 60,000 people lived in the regional city in the western part of Donetsk region before the Russian invasion. Now calculations show that they have decreased by about 20 thousand. Currently, the rest are being evacuated by train to Western Ukraine.
"This is very sad, but unfortunately it is known in Donbas - people run away with only their most valuable in a few bags. You can see cars with furniture on the ceilings", says Karol.
Why the city is so important for Ukraine
The city is located at the crossroads of railway lines and important roads. Pokrovsk is about 20 kilometers from the regional border with Dnipro. Getting there is an important goal for the Kremlin.
According to official data, as of autumn 2023, Ukraine controlled about 45% of the Donetsk region. Since then, the territories under Kiev's control have decreased, but there is no certain information by how much. Ukraine has two logistics hubs through which it maintains control over its part of the Donbas - one of them is Pokrovsk-Mirnograd, which is of strategic importance, explains Ukrainian military correspondent Yuriy Butusov.
Austrian military historian Markus Reisner shares his concerns. "Pokrovsk is not just an important base for logistics. If the city falls, it will cause delays in supplies elsewhere as well. In addition, it is practically a base for the third line of defense, behind which there is an open territory," Reisner explains. "That's why the situation is very dangerous." In the immediate vicinity of Pokrovsk, there are no other large cities that play an important role in Ukrainian defense. It is not clear how long it will take the Ukrainian army to build a new line of defense. According to Reisner, this usually takes months.
How the Russian army reached Pokrovsk
According to observers, the situation near Pokrovsk is the result of two events. First, on February 17, 2024, Russia captured Avdeyevka, a well-fortified settlement in Donetsk. The distance from there to Pokrovsk is about 60 km. The Russian army covered most of this distance in six months, advancing at an average of less than a kilometer per day. The second important moment is in May 2024, when the Russian army was able to take advantage of the rotation of Ukrainian units near the village of Ocheretyne and "push through" the front line, as Yuri Butusov describes it.
Marcus Reisner believes that Pokrovsk became the hot spot of the war by accident. "Russia managed to get through the second line of defense of the Ukrainian soldiers there. This could have happened elsewhere - for example in Siversk."
Observers point to several reasons for the success of Russian troops in Pokrovsk - one of them being the delay in Western arms deliveries during the winter. The situation is better now, but Ukrainian army commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky says Russia still has the advantage in artillery shells. But guns are not the main cause, experts say. "There is a problem with the organization and planning of the battles," says Yuri Butusov. Oliver Carroll draws attention to another problem: "The Ukrainian military is at the limit of its strength, they are exhausted, many have been in their positions for 30-40 days, in some cases even 70".
Will Ukraine be able to slow down the offensive?
Many experts suspect that the purpose of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region is to divert tension from the Donbass. So far, however, this has not worked to the extent that Kiev may have hoped. Observers doubt that there will be any change in the situation in Donbass. "There is a real danger that the enemy will take Pokrovsk, Mirnograd and Selidove before the end of the year," says Yuri Butusov.
"The question is - and then what? And at what cost to Russia? Will Ukraine be able to slow down the offensive?", says Oliver Carroll. Here the conditions are more difficult for the Ukrainian armed forces than they were in 2022 and 2023 in Bakhmut with its heights and tall buildings. There, the defense lasted several months.
According to experts, at least one scenario that many have long feared has not yet materialized - the encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the Donbass. For Russia, the "slow advance" is important, Yuri Butusov explains. It is not about winning the battle in one fell swoop. Experts like Markus Reisner hope that the West will realize the danger and increase its support. Yuri Butusov believes that only drones can quickly change the dynamics, and Ukraine "has a certain advantage over the Russians here, which it can quickly expand". To this end, Kiev's Western partners could directly finance Ukraine's existing drone factories. With drones, Ukraine has a chance to stop the Russian advance.
Author: Roman Goncharenko