An unexpected twist? North Korea won't send troops to help Kremlin

The attraction of the North Korean army in the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia could lead to a high level of casualties among Pyongyang's military. Therefore, the troops of Moscow's Asian allies are unlikely to be able to fully compensate for the losses of Russian personnel. This is stated in a new report by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports RBC-Ukraine.

On November 1, a meeting between the Russian Foreign Ministers of Russia and North Korea, Sergey Lavrov and Cho Song-hui, took place in Moscow. During the dialogue, the North Korean country secured strong guarantees for the support of the Kremlin against the backdrop of the deployment of its military in Russia. Cho also noted that Kim Jong-un ordered support for the "holy war” of Russia against Ukraine to victory.

ISW takes note of Cho's call for the concept of "holy war”. Analysts recall that the Russian Orthodox Church uses parallel rhetoric to justify the war in Ukraine as an existential and civilizational struggle, in which North Korea is now voluntarily entering.

The ISW report also noted that Cho's visit to Moscow comes amid reports of the deployment of 8,000 North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast, who will soon go into battle against the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) alongside Russian troops.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at a press conference on October 31 that Russian troops have trained their North Korean counterparts in the use of artillery systems, drone control and basic tactical infantry maneuvers.

At the same time, ISW analysts are convinced that, despite Pyongyang's goodwill toward Russian efforts, North Korean troops are unlikely to be able to offer a long-term solution to Russia's manpower problems.

According to Austin, Russian troops are taking more than 1,200 casualties a day (or about 36,000 casualties a month). According to recent US estimates, Russian conscription ranges from 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers per month, so Russia cannot make up for current frontline losses at a 1:1 ratio. I.e. 8,000 DPRK soldiers represent roughly the weekly loss along the entire front line.

"Since North Korea has sent 12,000 troops to Russia, it remains unclear exactly how they plan to use them. However, engaging North Korean soldiers in offensive operations with a high level of attrition is likely to result in a high level of casualties, the report said.

ISW recently estimated that North Korea probably decided to participate in the war on the side of Russia in order to gain valuable combat experience in modern warfare. However, the institute noted that how Russian commanders use North Korean troops in combat will affect their ability to absorb and disseminate their combat experience.

"If North Korean troops suffer similar losses as the Russians, the lessons Pyongyang hopes to learn on the battlefield will be undermined, and Kim Jong-un is unlikely to force his troops to suffer such losses on the battlefield for a long time,” he concluded. ISW.