Since the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) joined NATO in 1955. to Finland's neutrality during the Cold War – Western diplomats review their modern history in search of a way out of the war in Ukraine.
After nearly three years of conflict sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the start of talks looks increasingly likely, given that US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to reach a peace deal &ldquo ;in 24 hours“.
Pending such talks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday called on NATO to offer protection to Ukrainian areas still controlled by Kiev. He hinted that in such a case he would be ready to give up any immediate attempts to return the territories occupied by Russia – about 18 percent of the country's territory.
Such a scenario is reminiscent of a historical precedent regularly cited in recent months by Western diplomats and experts: West Germany's accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which became official on May 9, 1955.
„Everyone mentions the precedent with West Germany in 1955,”, a former senior European diplomat told AFP last month, adding that he did not find the comparison “quite appropriate”.
The parallel with Ukraine is tempting: at the time, joining NATO was tantamount to West Germany giving up on rapid reunification with the neighboring German Democratic Republic (GDR).
Furthermore, NATO's security guarantees are limited to the territory of West Germany to prevent the Cold War from escalating into a military or even nuclear conflict between East and West.
This is because Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states that any armed attack against a member of the pact is considered an attack against all its members – 32 to date.
Highlighted in particular by American Cold War historian Elise Sarot, the scenario “West Germany 1955“ was mentioned in October by Jens Stoltenberg, who had just finished his ten-year term as NATO Secretary General.
„A solution can always be found when we want it. However, it must be determined on which line Article 5 will be triggered, and Ukraine must control the entire territory up to that border,”, Stoltenberg said at the time.
„Full fantasy“
For Russia specialist John Laff, even Ukraine's limited membership in NATO is “complete fantasy, because that is exactly what Putin will never accept”. Not to mention the fact that the US does not currently support it.
„The best option I see emerging for Ukraine is to continue the process of joining the European Union,” this associate member of the Russia program at the “Chatham House” told AFP.
>
For the military aspect, Laff refers to another historical precedent – that of Finland after WWII.
By virtue of the agreements signed in 1948 treaty with the USSR Finland agrees to observe strict neutrality in exchange for recognition of its independence from its powerful neighbor, with whom it shares a border of almost 1,300 km.
„Beyond neutrality, what is very relevant in the Finnish experience is the way in which this country has built an extremely effective army so that Russia understands that if it decides to attack it, the war will be bloody,” the British explorer.
After the collapse of the USSR, Finland became closer to NATO, but became a full member only on April 4 last year.
Jens Stoltenberg also cited the Finnish precedent, as well as the 1951 treaty under which the US granted Japan military protection excluding the Soviet-occupied Kuril Islands, which Tokyo claims.
„It is good to use historical analogies to think about possible solutions (for Ukraine), but no analogy is perfect, and often they are even misleading,” says Tuomas Forsberi, professor of international relations at the University of Helsinki university.
The Finnish example “at least shows that a country can survive and even thrive after ceding much of its territory to a powerful neighbor”, in the case of the Finns – their province of Karelia, which has since been irretrievably lost.
„But there are many differences”, warns the Finnish researcher, starting with the fact that “Stalin started a war against Finland mainly for security reasons, not to subjugate the whole country”, which he believes to be the case with Putin's Russia regarding Ukraine.