After the presidential elections in Belarus on January 26, the election commission is expected to announce that 70-year-old Alexander Lukashenko has won a seventh term. The long-time dictator completely lost his legitimacy after the rigged elections in 2020.
Since then, he has been in international isolation and completely dependent on Russia. In the upcoming elections, Lukashenko is aiming for recognition and records. He has already set at least one - according to the election commission, 2.5 million voters, i.e. more than 35% of all, supported Lukashenko with signatures during the election campaign.
However, the 2025 election campaign is not a competition between candidates - Belarusians are only expected to show their loyalty to the regime. In the past, there was usually a phase of liberalization before elections - the opposition was given access to the media and voters, and officials were able to establish contacts with the West. That is history.
What is different this time?
Lev Gudkov of the independent Russian Levada Center says that according to polls in the 2020 election, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya received 53% of the vote, and Alexander Lukashenko - 28%. However, according to the election authorities, Lukashenko received 80.1% of the vote, and Tikhanovskaya - only 10.1%. The Levada Center, branded by the Russian authorities as a "foreign agent", is considered the last largely independent public opinion research institute in Russia.
To cover up the election fraud, the internet in Belarus was turned off for three days. Thousands of people were arrested, and many were tortured and beaten by the police. The violence sparked mass protests.
This time, almost five years later, the regime does not want to repeat its "mistakes". All independent media outlets have long been categorized as extremist and have been expelled from the country. The members of the election commissions are now secret, and only representatives of pro-government parties and organizations are allowed to observe the vote. The authorities sent an official invitation to OSCE observers only at the last minute. Police officers will have to observe the voting in the polling stations, which this time have open booths. In addition, photographing ballots is prohibited, and violations will be punished with fines.
This time, there will be no polling stations abroad either. The authorities have called on Belarusians living there to return home if they want to vote. This is not an option for opponents of the regime and politically persecuted persons who have received protection in EU countries and have not been able to return to their homeland for years. Moreover, they have no one to vote for, since Lukashenko has no real opponents. That is why the opposition abroad has called for a boycott of the "elections without the right to vote".
Who are Lukashenko's "opponents"?
Lukashenko's real rivals are Viktor Babarika, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Sergei Tikhanovsky, Maria Kolesnikova and Pavel Latushko. In 2020, all of them were either imprisoned and convicted, or forced to leave the country.
Formally, three representatives of pro-government parties are running against Lukashenko - Sergei Syrankov, Alexander Chizhnyak and Oleg Gaidukevich, as well as the pseudo-opposition Anna Kanopatskaya. The latter also took part in the 2020 elections and received about 1.5% of the vote.
Kanopatskaya is one of the few who managed to remain free in Belarus after participating in the elections, despite positioning themselves as part of the opposition. Kanopatskaya's participation in the 2025 elections is an attempt to create the impression of competition, Belarus experts tell DW.
Escape from the ongoing repression
Although Lukashenko has released 250 political prisoners in recent months, the repression continues. According to the "Vyazna" Human Rights Center, in 2024 alone, at least 8,895 people were subjected to politically motivated arrests, interrogations and searches. In total, since the summer of 2020 Human rights activists report 3,697 political prisoners, 1,254 of whom remain in detention, some of whom are in solitary confinement. They are not allowed to meet with relatives or lawyers, or receive letters.
One of them is opposition activist Maria Kolesnikova, who was allowed to see her father for the first time in two years in November 2024. Banker Viktor Babaryka, who wanted to run in the 2020 elections and was sentenced to 14 years in prison, has not been contacted for more than 600 days. Sergei Tikhanovsky, a blogger and husband of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, has been in solitary confinement for almost 700 days. He was sentenced to nearly 20 years in prison.
People are still being persecuted for their behavior on social media in 2020 and for their participation in protests. In recent years, hundreds of thousands have fled repression abroad. Since 2023, they have been deprived of all contact with the country of their citizenship, as Belarusian embassies no longer issue new passports, certificates or documents.
What do Belarusians expect?
According to a survey conducted by "Chatham House" between December 2024 and January 2025, Belarusians consider the 2025 elections to be an important event, but do not want to go to the polls. While in 2020 75% still "definitely" wanted to vote, today only 36 percent say so.
Belarusians do not expect change, but rather hope for a "breath of fresh air and a thaw". According to the survey, the majority hopes for better relations with the European Union. But under Lukashenko there will be no "thaw", says political scientist Valery Karbalevich. "Belarus is entering a new phase, the regime is developing from authoritarian to totalitarian".