Donald Trump really doesn't care about Ukraine. He just wants to get credit for the cessation of hostilities, declare himself a peacemaker and return home. This was stated by Phillips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews (Scotland), to The Times, commenting on the possibility of peace in Ukraine soon.
The publication points out that Ukraine is now facing a very dangerous scenario: a frozen conflict that could escalate again at any time due to the lack of a signed peace treaty. Even if a temporary ceasefire were to be reached, which is unlikely at the moment, it would not solve the problems.
The history of frozen conflicts is not happy - the threat of renewed armed confrontation always remains relevant. Trump is counting on his reputation as a negotiator to end the war in Ukraine. However, according to O'Brien, Trump's threats against Russia are not convincing. The American president has not offered any guarantees for Ukraine's security and is positioning himself as a mediator, not a guarantor for Kiev.
The most famous example of a frozen conflict in modern times is the Korean War. The Korean peninsula was divided in two, and North and South Korea are still technically at war in the absence of a peace treaty.
Trump has already made it clear that if a ceasefire in Ukraine requires the presence of peacekeeping forces, this issue should be resolved by Europe, not the United States. European leaders are belatedly beginning to realize what a Trump presidency could mean for Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has spoken of the dangers of a sudden ceasefire: "Nobody wants peace more than the people of Ukraine. But they want a just and lasting peace. What they don't want is a frozen conflict that can flare up again later."
Kiev is very familiar with this scenario. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also spoken of it, as for several years "we had a frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine", and the Minsk agreements have not led to its resolution. "We tried to talk to Russia, but we heard nothing but lies," Zelensky said. In Kiev, they do not believe the war will end anytime soon.
The Independent previously reported that a peace agreement on the war in Ukraine may prove unattainable. It is noted that previous agreements to end hostilities have failed, as have many other attempts. The war in Ukraine has been going on for over 10 years, since Putin annexed Crimea and attacked Donbas in 2014. In February 2022, a full-scale war began, which continues to this day.