Since the beginning of the New Year, the energy war between Russia on the one hand and Ukraine and its partners in Europe on the other has entered a new stage. As expected, Kiev interrupted the transit through Ukrainian territory of natural gas that Russia was sending to some EU member states that still maintain warm relations with the Kremlin. The 5-year contract for this transit expired and Ukraine did not want to renew it.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened Kiev with retaliatory measures.
However, the big problem is in Moldova. Transnistria was left without gas supplies, and electricity production for the whole of Moldova has been seriously compromised.
According to Martin Vladimirov, an expert from the Center for the Study of Democracy, it was not because of Ukraine that Transnistria was left without Russian gas. "Gazprom" announced that it would stop supplies to Transnistria from January 1, which was not justified by the suspension of transit through Ukraine, he explained. According to him, Russia can also deliver the necessary quantities through "Turkish Stream", Bulgaria and Romania.
"The Kremlin's actions are very typical of Russian influence in the entire region of Southeast Europe, namely the attempt to create an artificial crisis, which is based on the use of a long-term agreement, debt disputes and other types of relations that have nothing to do with reality. The goal is to create a disinformation atmosphere in which pro-Russian oligarchic circles and political parties in Moldova will shift the blame onto the pro-European government in Chisinau and thus create the impression that Chisinau is the cause of the humanitarian crisis that could erupt at any moment in Transnistria, thus undermining trust in the ruling authorities in July and causing them to lose the elections."
In an interview with the Bulgarian National Radio, Vladimirov expressed the opinion that Europe will not experience an energy crisis due to the suspended transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. According to him, the countries that received natural gas through Ukraine have alternative suppliers.
"Currently, Central Europe can be supplied with both Norwegian gas and gas from world markets in the form of liquefied natural gas. There are no security risks to supplies. "Probably the price that Austria, Slovakia and Italy will pay will be a little higher," the expert predicted in an interview for the program "Saturday 150".
He has two explanations for the fact that Ukraine did not stop this transit immediately after the start of the Russian invasion. Ukraine needed and still needs the support of the countries of Central Europe on various issues, Martin Vladimirov pointed out one explanation. And he added: "On the other hand, Ukraine is afraid that Russia will destroy the country's gas transmission infrastructure if "Gazprom" has no reason to transport gas. Now we will see if this risk will materialize."
He also emphasized Ukraine's long-term goal - to remain the gas hub of Europe. According to him, the country can retain this role. "Russia does not want this. "I wouldn't be surprised if the attacks on gas transmission infrastructure and storage facilities intensify," the expert said. However, he stressed that the country also has a large gas consumption:
"In this situation, Slovakia and Hungary cannot provide additional quantities of gas in reverse mode, and this will potentially affect the security of supplies to Ukraine. But I think the country will cope".
"The situation is under control, there is no need to speculate on it. The markets in Europe are also calming down now," Martin Vladimirov summed up. According to him, there should be no speculation that the price has jumped so much because of the suspension of transit through Ukraine. Only about 10% of the increase in European exchanges is based on transit, he emphasized.
Vladimirov considers the Slovak Prime Minister's threat of retaliatory measures against Kiev a "bluff":
"Slovakia cannot stop electricity supplies to Ukraine if it does not want to risk an investigation by the EC for violating European energy law".
According to him, nothing will materialize directly that would affect Ukraine's strategic interests.
Martin Vladimirov also commented on the changed situation for Bulgaria:
"The fact is 2 things. Hungary paid for gas transit through "Turkish Stream" for December, instead of "Gazprombank". The reason is that "Bulgartransgaz" was afraid to accept payment from "Gazprombank", rightly so. The situation for the first 3 months of 2025 is unclear, there is no solution to the case whether "Gazprombank" can continue to pay for transit through Bulgaria. It is unlikely that Hungary will shoulder the burden of paying for all countries along the route for the coming months. We are waiting to see an official statement from the Ministry of Energy. Minister Malinov mentioned shortly before the New Year that there was a derogation until March 20. According to my information, there is a derogation, but only for buyers of Russian gas, not for transitors. The situation is not clear at all. More clarity is needed. There is also an additional case here, which is also related to the information that "Bulgartransgaz" still owes money to offshore companies that have obligations to "Gazprombank" for the construction of "Balkan Stream" - the European continuation of the pipe. These funds have not yet been transferred to "Gazprombank". And this case is related to the situation and should be carefully examined".
According to him, Bulgaria has a unique opportunity, instead of being a "Trojan horse" of the Kremlin and the supplies of Russian natural gas via "Turkish Stream", to actually turn on the tap of Russia and thus position itself as the main distribution center for alternative supplies of liquefied natural gas, Azerbaijani gas. Bulgaria will not lose anything from this, the expert assured and said:
"Bulgaria can only win. "We need political will, we need coordination at the regional level between gas transmission network operators and a little support from Brussels and Washington to make this happen so that it does not lead to an energy crisis or a significant increase in natural gas prices."